Wednesday, August 01, 2018
Guesstimates on August 1, 2018
September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES will probably drop further to 2792 unless it first can move up above 2830. Even so the ES is very likely to trade above its January top of 2878.50 during the next few weeks. By the end of the year the 3100 level is likely to be reached
QQQ: Support is 175 and the upside target is now 190.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: It is likely the Euro bear market has resumed. Ultimately it is likely to carry the Euro back down to its 103 low.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is 65. The 72-74 zone was strong resistance but has been breeched once already. I expect more selling at 78 but if that resistance fails crude will be headed for 87.
Gold: The 1210-15 zone is support for the December ’18 contract as well. Resistance above the market is at 1255 and another leg down, this time to 1150 is likely.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: GOOG has reached the 1250 target. Support now is at 1175. Next upside target is 1400.
Apple: AAPL is headed higher to 198 and above.
Facebook: FB got to within a point of its 220 upside target and then collapsed on earnings news. Support is at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR broke support at 36 but is likely to hold support at 30. I think TWTR has a good shot at returning to its historical high just below 75 by the end of the year.
Alibaba: BABA should rally to 215 and then to 250 over the coming months.
Visa: Headed for 145. Support is 135.