Thursday, August 16, 2018

Guesstimates on August 18, 2018

September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES staged a downside breakout yesterday but stopped well above the 2791 target. The subsequent turn-around has started a swing up which is likely to carry to and beyond the January top at 2878.50. By the end of the year the 3100 level is still plausible target.
QQQ: Support is 175 and the upside target is now 190.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: It is likely the Euro bear market has resumed. Ultimately it is likely to carry the Euro back down to its 103 low.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is 65. The 72-74 zone was strong resistance but has been breeched once already. I expect more selling at 78 but if this resistance fails crude will be headed for 87.  
Gold:  Downside target is 1150 and resistance is at 1190.
Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: GOOG has reached the 1250 target. Support now is at 1175. Next upside target is 1400.  
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 250.
Facebook:  FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR is likely to hold support at 30. I think TWTR has a good shot at returning to its historical high just below 75 by the end of the year.
Alibaba: BABA’s 175 support level failed but I expect support at 160 to hold and be followed by a big swing up.
Visa: Headed for 145. Support is 135.

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