Monday, November 12, 2018

Guesstimates on November 12, 2018

December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is likely to drop into the 2751-59 support zone. If that fails then the market will continue down to 2713. In either case I think the swing up from the October 29 low at 2603 will resume and carry the ES to new bull market highs. But if instead the rally from 2603 rolls over before taking out the September 21 top the longer term picture will darken and a bear market may then be underway.
QQQ: The drop from 187 has probably ended. If so next upside target is 195.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Downside target is 58.
Gold: Support is in the 1215-20 zone has failed. Downside target is 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG has ended its drop from its 1295 high. If not then 975 is the worst I see on the downside.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 250. Support is at 198.
Facebook:  FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.

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