Thursday, November 08, 2018

Guesstimates on November 8, 2018

December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is now likely to drop 50-60 points before resuming its swing up from the 2603 low on October 29. I think this up swing will carry to new bull market highs in which case 2019 is likely to be another bullish year. But if instead the rally rolls over before taking out the September 21 top the longer term picture will become potentially bearish. Keep in mind that at the October 29 low the S&P 500, the Dow, and the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline ratio were visibly below their respective 200 day moving averages. This is not necessarily terminal for the bull market – it happened in 2010, 2011, and 2016 and in each case new bull market highs followed. But with the current bull market nearing the 10 year mark it makes sense to take these moving average penetrations seriously.  
QQQ: The drop from 187 has probably ended. If so next upside target is 195.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: It is likely the Euro bear market has resumed. Ultimately it is likely to carry the Euro back down to its 103 low.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 65 has failed. Another step down will take crude to 58.
Gold: Support is in the 1215-20 zone. Upside target is 1265.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG has ended its drop from its 1295 high. If not then 975 is the worst I see on the downside.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 250. Support is at 198.
Facebook:  FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.

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