Monday, December 31, 2018

Guesstimates on December 31, 2018

March S&P E-mini Futures: The Christmas Crash ended temporarily tat 2317. But the current rally is unlikely to carry past 2530. Bearish sentiment is extreme so I think the coming drop from 2530 will probably end at a low above 2317 and then will be followed by another leg upward.  A 50% retracement of the 630 point drop from the September top at 2947 would fail to reach the 200 day moving average which currently is near 2745. This is a definite bear market configuration. A bear market low near 2100 in October 2019 seems like a reasonable projection.
QQQ: The Q’s dropped well below 150 during the Christmas crash to 142. Resistance now is 15 points or so above temporary low. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude bounced off of support at 42 but the rally is unlikely to carry past resistance at 51 before a drop to 38 develops.  
Gold: The market is near 1285 resistance.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple:  AAPL has reached 150 support but will probably drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook:  FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is back below 30 and probably headed for 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.

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