Friday, December 13, 2019
Guesstimates on December 13, 2019
December S&P E-mini Futures: The March 2020 contract is now the front month. So far the ES has reached 3188.25. Nearest resistance is 3200-04. Still higher prices are likely during the coming months. The Lindsay basic advance which started from the December 2018 low remains intact and is likely to carry the ES to 3500 or so.
QQQ: I think that this index is headed for 230-240 during the next 18 months.
TNX (ten year note yield): 1.60% is support. This yield up swing is likely to carry the 10 year yield first to 3.24% and then to 5.00 %. Contrary to popular belief higher yields will be bullish for stock prices since they will indicate confidence that more and stronger economic growth lies ahead.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is trying to recover support at 108.00. If it succeeds then continuation up to 121 is likely. If it fails a drop to 100 will continue.
West Texas Crude Oil: I now think it is likely that 57 resistance has failed. If I am right crude will rally first to 65 and then to 75.
Gold: Strong resistance level is 1515. A drop to 1400 is a reasonable expectation with even lower prices a good possibility.
Silver: Support is at 16.50. If it fails a drop to 12.50 will be underway.
Google: Support is 1210. Next upside target is 1350.
Apple: AAPL now headed for 285.
Amazon: Support is 1720. If it fails then down to 1550. If it holds then new bull market highs are likely.
Facebook: Support is 188 and next upside target is 215.
Twitter: The 28 level is support and if it fails continuation down to 13 becomes likely.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for new bull market highs.