Thursday, December 19, 2019
Guesstimates on December 19, 2019
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is stalling in the 3200-04 resistance zone which makes a drop of 30 points or so likely before the rally continues. In any event still higher prices are likely during the coming months. The Lindsay basic advance which started from the December 2018 low remains intact and is likely to carry the ES to 3500 or so.
QQQ: I think that this index is headed for 230-240 during the next 18 months.
TNX (ten year note yield): 1.60% is support. This yield up swing is likely to carry the 10 year yield first to 3.24% and then to 5.00 %. Contrary to popular belief higher yields will be bullish for stock prices since they will indicate confidence that more and stronger economic growth lies ahead.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is trying to recover support at 108.00. If it succeeds then continuation up to 121 is likely. If it fails a drop to 100 will continue.
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude is on its way to 65 then 75.
Gold: Strong resistance level is 1515. A drop to 1400 is a reasonable expectation with even lower prices a good possibility.
Silver: Support is at 16.50. If it fails a drop to 12.50 will be underway.
Google: Next upside target is 1350. Support is now 1250 and subsequent upside target is 1445.
Apple: AAPL now headed for 285.
Amazon: Support is 1720. If it fails then down to 1550. If it holds then new bull market highs are likely.
Facebook: Support is 188 and next upside target is 215.
Twitter: The 28 level is support and if it fails continuation down to 13 becomes likely.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for new bull market highs.
Visa: Support is at 160-62. V is headed for 200.