Friday, April 17, 2020
Guesstimates on April 17, 2020
June S&P E-mini Futures: A rumor, later denied, that the trial of a Covid-19 drug was showing excellent results rocketed the ES skyward 90 points right after yesterday’s close. I still think the market will have a hard time establishing itself above 2900 before at least one big drop of 200 points or so develops. That said, the March 23 low at 2174 almost surely ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. A new bull market has begun. I think the Fed’s new QE program is very bullish long term while the Corona Crisis shows definite signs of having passed its peak. Bearish sentiment and volatility remain high and this reinforces my view that a very important low has occurred.
QQQ: Support is 165.
TNX (ten year note yield): Downside target is 0.00.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support now is 18 with resistance at 30.
Gold: Gold has broken through 1700-50 resistance. This is a very bullish sign and makes continuation up to 2100 likely. But support is at 1700. If that fails I will be bearish once more.
Silver: Sit now looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market.
Google: Support at 1000 held. Upside target is now 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: 2500 is the upside target. Support at 2000.
Facebook: Upside target is 225.
Twitter: Resistance is at 30. A swing visibly above there would be very bullish.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: The 178 level is resistance. A swing visibly above there will continue past 215.