Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Guesstimates on April 22, 2020

June S&P E-mini Futures:  A drop of 200 points or so from Friday’s 2885 top is underway but a swing back above 2800 would cancel this bearish, short term prognosis. In any case the March 23 low at 2174 almost surely ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. A new bull market has begun. I think the Fed’s new QE program is very bullish long term while the Corona Crisis shows definite signs of having passed its peak. Bearish sentiment and volatility remain high and this reinforces my view that the 2174 low will hold for several years.
QQQ: Support is 165.
TNX (ten year note yield): Downside target is 0.00.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: The front month June dropped to 6.50 yesterday, well below the lowest price seen in more than 30 years. Remember the “peak oil” mass hysteria in 2008 with predictions of $200-300 per barrel oil and a permanently high price plateau? This market is in a chaotic state but the price collapse is probably over with 6.50 the new historical low. A bull market in oil prices is about to begin and will probably last many years.
Gold: Gold has support in the 675-700 zone which has held so far. As long as it does new historical highs lie ahead with the first step up to 1923 and the second to 2150.
Silver: Sit now looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market.
Google: Support at 1000 held. Upside target is now 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: 2500 is the upside target. Support at 2000.
Facebook:  Upside target is 225.
Twitter: Resistance is at 30. A swing visibly above there would be very bullish.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: The 178 level is resistance. A swing visibly above there will continue past 215.

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