Friday, May 15, 2020
Guesstimates on May 15, 2020
June S&P E-mini Futures: As long as the ES stays above 2800 a swing up to 3000 is likely. Otherwise the ES a drop below 2700 will be in progress. In either case the March 23 low at 2174 ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. A new bull market has begun. I think the Fed’s QE program is very bullish long term while the Corona Crisis has passed its peak. I expect that the 2174 low will hold for several years.
QQQ: Upside target is 250. Support is 198.
TNX (ten year note yield): There is a good chance that the 0.40% level was the low yield of this nearly 40 year decline in bond yields and that yields will soon start a long march into higher ground.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: Remember the “peak oil” mass hysteria in 2008 with predictions of $200-300 per barrel oil at a permanently high plateau? The front month June low at 6.50 is likely to be the all-time low for crude oil and as such will hold for many years. A new bull market has begun. Support now is at 17 and next upside target is 32.
Gold: Gold has support in the 675-700 zone which so far has held. New historical highs lie ahead with the first step up to 1923 and the second to 2150.
Silver: It now looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market.
Google: Support at 1000 held. Upside target is now 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: 2500 is the upside target. Support at 2000.
Facebook: Upside target is 225.
Twitter: Resistance is at 30. A swing visibly above there would be very bullish.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: The 178 level is resistance. A swing visibly above there will continue past 215.