Monday, May 04, 2020
Guesstimates on May 4, 2020
June S&P E-mini Futures: Next step up will be to 3000. The March 23 low at 2174 ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. A new bull market has begun. I think the Fed’s new QE program is very bullish long term while the Corona Crisis shows definite signs of having passed its peak. Bearish sentiment and volatility remain high and this reinforces my view that the 2174 low will hold for several years.
QQQ: Upside target is 250. Support is 198.
TNX (ten year note yield): There is a good chance that the 0.40% level was the low yield of this nearly 40 year decline in bond yields and that yields will soon start a long march into higher ground.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: Remember the “peak oil” mass hysteria in 2008 with predictions of $200-300 per barrel oil at a permanently high plateau? The front month June low at 6.50 is likely to be the all-time low for crude oil and as such will hold for many years. A new bull market has begun. First upside target is 25. Support is at 9-10.
Gold: Gold has support in the 675-700 zone which so far has held. New historical highs lie ahead with the first step up to 1923 and the second to 2150.
Silver: It now looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market.
Google: Support at 1000 held. Upside target is now 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: 2500 is the upside target. Support at 2000.
Facebook: Upside target is 225.
Twitter: Resistance is at 30. A swing visibly above there would be very bullish.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: The 178 level is resistance. A swing visibly above there will continue past 215.