Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Guesstimates on June 17, 2020

June S&P E-mini Futures:  Evidently the drop from 3220 ended Sunday night at 2924 and the ES is on its way up again. My guess is that the market is going to have a hard time moving much above 3220 before another substantial drop develops. In any case, this is a bull market. The March 23 low at 2174 ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. I think the Fed’s QE program is very bullish long term and that the Corona Crisis has passed its peak. The 2174 low will hold for several years.
QQQ:  Support is 215.
TNX (ten year note yield): There is a good chance that the 0.40% level was the low yield of this nearly 40 year decline in bond yields and that yields will soon start a long march into higher ground.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: The June ’20 contract low at 6.50 is likely to be the all-time low for crude oil and as such will hold for many years. A new bull market has begun. Resistance at 35-36 has failed and next upside target is 44. Support now is 32.
Gold: Gold has support in the 675-700 zone which so far has held. New historical highs lie ahead with the first step up to 1923 and the second to 2150.
Silver: It looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market. Next upside target is 25.00
Google: Upside target is 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: Support at 2250. Next upside target is 3000.
Facebook:  Upside target is 290.
Twitter: Upside target 75.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: Upside target is 240.

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