Thursday, June 04, 2020
Guesstimates on June 4, 2020
June S&P E-mini Futures: Trader sentiment is extremely bullish. A drop below 3090 will probably be the start of a 200-300 point decline. Shorter term fluctuations aside, the March 23 low at 2174 ended the drop from 3397 – the Corona Crash. A new bull market is underway. I think the Fed’s QE program is very bullish long term and the Corona Crisis has passed its peak. The 2174 low will hold for several years.
QQQ: Upside target is 250. Support is 198.
TNX (ten year note yield): There is a good chance that the 0.40% level was the low yield of this nearly 40 year decline in bond yields and that yields will soon start a long march into higher ground.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: I am not sure what is going on with the dollar-yen other than it seems to be confined within a 101-115 trading range.
West Texas Crude Oil: The June ’20 contract low at 6.50 is likely to be the all-time low for crude oil and as such will hold for many years. A new bull market has begun. Resistance at 35-36 has failed and next upside target is 44. Support now is 29.
Gold: Gold has support in the 675-700 zone which so far has held. New historical highs lie ahead with the first step up to 1923 and the second to 2150.
Silver: It now looks like the 12.50 downside target ended the long silver bear market.
Google: Upside target is 1600.
Apple: Upside target is 355.
Amazon: 2500 has been reached. Support at 2000. Next upside target is 3000.
Facebook: Upside target is 290.
Twitter: Upside target 75.
Alibaba: BABA now headed for 250.
Visa: Upside target is 240.