Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Guesstimates on October 22, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1943. A close in the S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis, especially because the 4 day rally we have just seen has the characteristics of a “kick-off” for a much bigger trend. But for the time being I am sticking with my bearish view.
QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis.
TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86%. Further stock market weakness would drop the 10 year yield to 1.60%. But if no such weakness develops I think the 10 year yield will begin an extended trend upwards above the 3.00% level.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Guesstimates on October 21, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1896-1918. Last week the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  The rally from last week’s low has been violent and fast, characteristic of rallies in a bear market.
QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is now at 96.
TNX (ten year note yield): It now looks like the 10 year yield will drop to 1.60% before the flight to safety subsides.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Guesstimates on October 20, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1871-93. Last week the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  
QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is at 94.
TNX (ten year note yield): It now looks like the 10 year yield will drop to 1.60% before the flight to safety subsides.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.