Monday, September 22, 2014

Guesstimates on September 22, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1993-2003. I think this market is headed for 2080.
QQQ: Upside target is 103.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): It looks like an extended up trend in yields has begun. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   Resistance above the market is at 95. I expect the market to move below 90.
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650 and higher.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 103 but I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price before going much higher than that.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Guesstimates on September 19, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2003-2014. I think this market is headed for 2080.
QQQ: Upside target is 103.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): It looks like an extended up trend in yields has begun. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   Resistance above the market is at 95. I expect the market to move below 90.
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650 and higher.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Attention Traders

As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 167% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

update

Here are charts of the five stocks I have been commenting on for the past year or two. My last post about them is here. Tomorrow I plan to add a sixth, Alibaba (BABA) to this group.

The first thing worth noticing is that all five of these stocks are trading above their 200 day moving averages (red lines). The worst performer in this regard is Visa. I have abandoned my 250 target for Visa and expect it to stay below its January top for the rest of the bull market.

The top chart shows Apple in a strong uptrend. My near term target for AAPL is 108 or so but I am thinking in terms of 120-25 before the bull market ends

Below AAPL's chart is that of Google. GOOGL is still below its February top but does show a pattern of higher lows since then. I think GOOGL will make it at least to 650 before the bull market ends.

The third chart from the top is that of Facebook. My upside target for FB remains 90 or so.

The fourth chart shows price action in Twitter. TWTR has reached the 50-52 target I mentioned in my last post on these stocks but I don't think its upswing is over. I am looking for 65 as the next stop.

Alibaba has not even established its IPO price yet but talk is of 68-70. BABA will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow as soon as the market finds a price which will balance the order book. My guess is that initial enthusiasm will send BABA to 90-95 but after that I expect to see BABA dip below its IPO price.

Guesstimates on September 18, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1994-2008. I think this market is headed for 2080.
QQQ: Upside target is 103.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): It looks like an extended up trend in yields has begun. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached my 107.00 target and has started to trade above what I thought would be a 107-108 resistance zone. Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:  Crude nearly reached my 90 target. Resistance above the market is at 95. I expect the market to move below 90.
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108.