Thursday, July 24, 2014

Attention Traders

As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades on October 14 they have generated  72 points profit on a one contract basis. This is a return of 36% on a 10k trading account to margin a single contract (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,500). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 142% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

If you want to see my trades in real time with almost no delay you can sign up for my trading seminar at  CarlFutiaRealTime.   Not only will you get my private, real time Twitter feed but I will explain my trades and my way of thinking about the markets every day in posts I make before the open and near the close. When market conditions warrant I also provide one or two line interim updates during the trading session on my market views.

I think the most important skill any trader can have is the ability to interpret the market's language. Every price fluctuation in the E-minis (or any market for that matter) provides the careful observer with clues about the market's direction within the day and day-to -day and week-to- week.  Do you know how to find these clues and interpret them? This is the skill I teach in my seminar. You can get all this for only $25 for the first four weeks.

So far I have made more than 3000 posts and answered more than 6000 questions about my methods and ideas. Every day I explain my thinking and how I reach my conclusions about the E-mini's various trends. I explain why I make the trades you see on the Twitter feed. You can learn these skills too by reading my posts, asking questions in the seminar comments section, and watching me trade. Sign up now and start improving your trading skills today!!

Traders' Testimonials 

(just the last seven  - for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

update

I'd like to update my views on the US stock market averages although not much has changed since my last post on the subject.

It now looks like the Lindsay projections for a July top are off the mark. As with most forecasting methods Lindsay's allows one to stretch projections out a bit and even distort them to fit your own preconceptions. But this is generally a fruitless effort so for the moment I'd say that Lindsay does not have much to say about the prospects of a bull market top in this general vicinity.

The same remarks apply to my various interpretations of the three peaks and a domed house formation. While some are still viable the steady creep upwards in this market is not characteristic of the 3PDH formation so for the moment I am not putting much if any weight on that analysis.

As you can see in the top two charts the Dow and the S&P 500 remain well above their 50 day moving averages (green lines) and above their 200 day moving averages (red lines). The Dow has yet to move above its mid-July high even as the S&P has done so. The NYSE advance-decline line also shows a minor bearish divergence from the S&P price action. But minor divergences such as these are fairly common and without more evidence I have to stay on the bullish side of the market.

Only a drop in both the Dow and in the S&P below their respective 50 day moving averages would turn me bearish, and even then I would only be looking for a drop to their respective 200 day moving averages or a little below.

The bottom two charts suggest that the upswing from the July 18 low has a fair amount further to travel. You can see that the 10 day moving average of the NYSE advancing issues reached oversold levels comparable to those at the February 5 low. That low was followed by a 240 point rally in the S&P. A similar rally from 1940 would put this average at 2180 although I think this is a tad optimistic. But a move up comparable to the 175 point rally from the April 14 low, a swing which would carry to 2110, is well within the realm of possibility.

The bottom chart shows the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio. You can see that it reached a low (bearish) level just before the July 3 top and has since been rising. I don't think there will be any danger of an extended decline in the averages at least until this put-call ratio drops close to its late June levels.

Guesstimates on July 24, 29014



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1978-88. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  
QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has spent a day below the 1.35 low of its recent trading range but so far this breakout has not led to any further downside pressure. However, a drop below 1.3435 would mean that the market iw headed down to 1.33 or lower.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.
August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395. Support is at 1285.
September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.
Google:  Googl is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Guesstimates on July 23, 2014



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1975-88. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  
QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has again dropped below the 1.35 low of its recent trading range. If the market spends a day trading below 1.35 I will start looking for a swing down to 1.33.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.
August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395. Support is at 1285.
September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.
Google:  Googl is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Guesstimates on July 22, 2014



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1971-83. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  
QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00 has been reached and breached. Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has again dropped below the 1.35 low of its recent trading range. If the market spends a day trading below 1.35 I will start looking for a swing down to 1.33.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.
August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395. Support is at 1285.
September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.
Google:  Googl is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.