Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Guesstimates on April 22, 2014



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1860-1871. I believe the ES is headed above 1892.
QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
June Crude:  Crude has spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 510, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Guesstimates on April 21, 2014



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1850-62. I now believe the ES is headed above 1892.
QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
June Crude:  Crude has spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 510, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

update


Here are daily charts of my three favorite trend indicators.

Earlier this week both the Dow and the S&P closed below their 50 day moving averages. This turned my intermediate term trend indicator downward via the 2 out of 3 rule. But as you can see both averages quickly recovered and are now all three indicators are once again above their 50 day moving averages.

The drop to the April 11 low in the S&P was not as long as the drop into the February 5, 2014 low but it was just about the same size as the drops into the October 9 and August 28 lows in 2013. Since both averages have recovered more than half their drops into the April 11 low and are above the 50 day moving averages I conclude that the corrective phase is complete and that both averages are now headed for new bull market highs.

If the rally from the April 11 low matches the size of the rally from the February 5 low in the S&P that average should reach the 1970 level over the next couple of months.

Guesstimates on April 17, 2014



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1848-1863. The midpoint of the drop from 1892.50 to 1803.25 was 1848 and the market held that level as support overnight. I now believe the ES is headed above 1892.
QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
June Crude:  If crude has spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 508, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower.