Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Guesstimates on August 23, 2017



September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES stalled at 2452 resistance yesterday. The substantial retracement of last week’s losses is a bullish clue. A successful defense of support near 2435 would signal the start of a swing up above the 2500 level.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): If the 10 year yield can stay above the 2.15% level then I think deflationary fears have been put aside and the trend upward to a 3.00% yield will continue.  
Euro-US Dollar: Upside target is 122 while support is at 115. I think the rise in the Euro represents an effective tightening in Euro zone monetary conditions. This is good reason to expect the ECB to continue its QE policy. If the ECB does not it will drive a nail into the coffin of the 9 year bull market in world stock markets.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Resistance at 48 has failed. Crude is now headed back to 55 and support is at 45.
December Gold:  Resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
September Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 was nearly reached but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL reached its 162 target. Support still is at 144.
Facebook: FB got within 2 points of the upside target at 180. I think FB will have a hard time moving much past that level for a while. Meantime support is at 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: BABA has acted stronger than the market by moving up past the high of the 160-65 target zone. I now think it is headed for resistance at 178-80.
Visa: V has made it up to the 103 target. Support remains in the 89-90 zone.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Guesstimates on August 22, 2017



September S&P E-mini Futures: The market is probably headed for support in the 2402-2410 range. Resistance above the market is at 2445 and 2452. Any weakness below 2400 would mean the 9 month rally from last November’s low is over.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): If the 10 year yield can stay above the 2.15% level then I think deflationary fears have been put aside and the trend upward to a 3.00% yield will continue.  
Euro-US Dollar: Upside target is 122 while support is at 115. I think the rise in the Euro represents an effective tightening in Euro zone monetary conditions. This is good reason to expect the ECB to continue its QE policy. If the ECB does not it will drive a nail into the coffin of the 9 year bull market in world stock markets.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Resistance at 48 has failed. Crude is now headed back to 55 and support is at 45.
December Gold:  Resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
September Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 was nearly reached but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL reached its 162 target. Support still is at 144.
Facebook: FB got within 2 points of the upside target at 180. I think FB will have a hard time moving much past that level for a while. Meantime support is at 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: BABA has acted stronger than the market by moving up past the high of the 160-65 target zone. I now think it is headed for resistance at 178-80.
Visa: V has made it up to the 103 target. Support remains in the 89-90 zone.

Monday, August 21, 2017

Guesstimates on August 21, 2017



September S&P E-mini Futures: The market is probably headed for support in the 2402-2410 range. Any more weakness than that would mean the 9 month rally from last November’s low is over.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): If the 10 year yield can stay above the 2.15% level then I think deflationary fears have been put aside and the trend upward to a 3.00% yield will continue.  
Euro-US Dollar: Upside target is 122 while support is at 115. I think the rise in the Euro represents an effective tightening in Euro zone monetary conditions. This is good reason to expect the ECB to continue its QE policy. If the ECB does not it will drive a nail into the coffin of the 9 year bull market in world stock markets.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Resistance at 48 has failed. Crude is now headed back to 55 and support is at 45.
December Gold:  Resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
September Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 was nearly reached but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL reached its 162 target. Support still is at 144.
Facebook: FB got within 2 points of the upside target at 180. I think FB will have a hard time moving much past that level for a while. Meantime support is at 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: BABA has been acting stronger than the market by moving up past the high of the 160-65 target zone. I think it will stall here and then drop to support in the 145-50 zone.
Visa: V has made it up to the 103 target. Support remains in the 89-90 zone.