FYI

Check out Carl Futia's Real Time Trading Seminar.

 

Guesstimates on September 3, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1092-1108. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

 

Guesstimates on September 2, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1075-1093. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

 

Breakout

Here is a five point box, one box reversal chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I think today's action is an upside breakout from a base formed during the past week (last green dash oval). A count across this base yields an upside target of 1140. The significance of this target is that it is above the last high at 1127. This suggests that the market has made a higher low above the early July low and will soon make a higher high above the early August high.

One clue about market direction that can be gleaned from a point and figure chart comes from looking at the relative sizes of congestion areas that form near highs and lows. On the way down from the 1127 high in early August you can see that the congestion areas near highs became smaller (last three red dash ovals) while those near lows became larger (last three green dash ovals). This shows that the buyers were gradually assuming control of the market.

Notice finally that the most recent congestion (green arrow) was bigger than the one which formed at the early August top (red arrow). This is often a definitive indication of an imminent reversal in trend.

 

Even stronger than expected

The ES moved well past the 1070 estimated day session high today on news that came out at 10am. I now think the day session high will be near 1083.

The high volume makes this look like an upside breakout above the 1072.75 high made Sunday night. If so the market will close above its day session midpoint which currently sits at 1069.75.

I think the ES is now headed for 1140 and eventually much higher than that.

 

Guesstimates on September 1, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1055-1070. The ES is making another attempt at an upside breakout from its recent trading range. I think it will succeed and if it does the market will be headed for 1140 and higher

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

 

Still a positive day

Despite the afternoon break of nearly 12 points I think today's action still has bullish implications. It looks like the ES will close up on the day. And the close will be in the upper half of the day's range. Tomorrow I plan to follow early strength that develops above the midpoint of today's range at 1046.

 

sold long at 1048.50 - but still bullish

 

Long one unit at 1048.50

 

Going up

The low of the day session is in at 1039.25. I now expect the high to be 1062 or so.

 

Guesstimates on August 31, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1025-1045. The ES has dropped all the way back to Friday's low. This is a bearish development. I now think the market is headed for 1010-15.

QQQQ: Headed for 42.50 where I expect a higher low to be established.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.