Thursday, July 30, 2015

Attention Traders

As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. So far this year my seminar day trades have generated a return of 88% trading one contract per 10k in equity (almost 4 times the day trading margin requirement).

Of course the real reason for joining your fellow traders at my seminar is to learn my trading techniques which you will find quite unusual. I focus on identifying support and resistance levels, especially those in accord with my theory of repetition in markets. I think these ideas will open you eyes to new ways of taking advantage of market swings. 

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

stock market update


My favorite long term trend indicator for the US stock market uses the 200 day moving averages of the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NYSE advance-decline ratio (top three charts). When two of these three averages are above their respective 200 day averages the long term trend is bullish and when two of three are below their 200 day averages the long term trend is bearish.

At Monday's low you can see that the Dow and the advance-decline ratio were both below their 200 day moving average, in principle a long term bear signal. But I found this mechanical indication unconvincing at the time and still think the longer term trend of the US stock market is upward. Here is my thinking.
 
First, you can see that the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 are both above their 200 day averages, the Nasdaq substantially so. Thus the tech and small cap sectors are not following the Dow downward (yet).  This coupled with the oversold status of the 10 day advancing issues oscillator (bottom chart) makes me think a rally is more likely now than the start of a bear market.

The European stock market as represented by the Stoxx 600 is also visibly above its 200 day moving average as is the Japanese Nikkei. This is significant because both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are implementing quantitative easing policies. As long as their respective stock averages remain above their 200 day averages I think we can assume these policies are having their desired effect on asset prices. This increase in liquidity has world-wide effects and in particular is bullish for US stock prices as well.

Consequently I am still a long term bull on the US stock market. I think the surprise lying in wait for traders and investors is an upside breakout from the trading range of the past 7 months. Only if the S&P 500 joins the Dow and the advance-decline ratio below its 200 day moving average will I reconsider my bullish views. 



 

Guesstimates on July 30, 2015



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2086-2099. As long as no weakness below 2080 develops I think the market will move up to 2126.25 and above.
QQQ:  Support is at 108. Upside target is 120.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market has dropped visibly below 1.10 support. I think it is headed to 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance. Meantime support is at 45.
August Gold:  Gold has made a new bear market low but is getting closer to long term support at 1030. I think a new bull market is likely to emerge from a low near that support level.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google:  GOOG will probably drop to 635 before its bull market resumes.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Next upside target is 110. Support is at 80.
Twitter: TWTR broke below 35 support and is now headed for 25.
Alibaba: BABA is on its way to 70. Resistance above the market is at 85.
Visa: Upside target at 72 has been reached but there is no sign that the advance is over. Next stop is 80. Support is still 63.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Guesstimates on July 29, 2015



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate up until the Fed announcement is 2081-2094. Yesterday’s rally pushed the ES back above the critical 2080 level. As long as no weakness below 2075 develops I think the market is now headed above 2126.25.  
QQQ:  Support is at 108. Upside target is 120.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market has again dropped visibly below 1.10 support. I think it is headed to 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance. Meantime support is at 45.
August Gold:  Gold has made a new bear market low but is getting close to long term support at 1030. I think a new bull market is likely to emerge from a low near that support level.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google:  Support at 675 has been broken and GOOG will probably drop to 635 before its bull market resumes.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Next upside target is 110. Support is at 80.
Twitter: TWTR broke below 35 support and is now headed for 25.
Alibaba: BABA is on its way to 70. Resistance above the market is at 85.
Visa: Upside target at 72 has been reached but there is no sign that the advance is over. Next stop is 80. Support is still 63.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Guesstimates on July 28, 2015



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2070-2082. The ES now appears to be headed for the July 6 low at 2034. Any obvious weakness below 2030 would be very bearish.
QQQ:  Support is at 108. Upside target is 120.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market has again dropped visibly below 1.10 support. I think it is headed to 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance. Meantime support is at 45.
August Gold:  Gold has made a new bear market low but is getting close to long term support at 1030. I think a new bull market is likely to emerge from a low near that support level.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google:  Support at 675 has been broken and GOOG will probably drop to 635 before its bull market resumes.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Next upside target is 110. Support is at 80.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA is on its way to 70. Resistance above the market is at 85.
Visa: Upside target at 72 has been reached but there is no sign that the advance is over. Next stop is 80. Support is still 63.