Thursday, January 17, 2019

Guesstimates on January 17


March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES finally moved above 2603 resistance yesterday but the repeated bounces off of that level are signs of weakness. Either the ES has begun a drop fo between 80 and 150 points or will soon do so after reaching 2632 resistance. Looking further ahead I expect the ES to swing up and down between its Christmas Crash low at 2316.75 and its 200 day moving average at 2740 for the next few months. A subsequent bear market low near 2100 is likely in October 2019.
QQQ:  Resistance is now at 162. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro couldn’t hold 114.50 support so resistance above the market is now 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is now resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple:  AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook:  FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Guesstimates on January 16, 2019


March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES finally moved above 2603 resistance yesterday but the repeated bounces off of that level are signs of weakness. The ES is likely to advance to 2631 bu then a drop of 80-150 points is likely. Looking further ahead I expect the ES to swing up and down between its Christmas Crash low at 2316.75 and its 200 day moving average at 2740 for the next few months. A bear market low near 2100 is likely in October 2019.
QQQ:  Resistance is now at 162. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro couldn’t hold 114.50 support so resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is now resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple:  AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook:  FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Guesstimates on January 15, 2019


March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has again been turned back from 2603 resistance. A drop to support in the 2515-19 zone is likely. I expect the ES to swing up and down between its Christmas Crash low at 2316.75 and its 200 day moving average at 2740 for the next few months. A bear market low near 2100 is likely in October 2019.
QQQ: The Q’s dropped well below 150 during the Christmas crash to 142. Resistance is now at 162. Next downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has taken a peek above 115 resistance which has stopped all rally attempts for the last two months. If the market can now hold above 114.50 it will be headed up to 117.50. The longer term picture is still bearish, however.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is now resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1315.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750.
Apple:  AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook:  FB is holding support at 125 but eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.