Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Guesstimates on April 16, 2014



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1840-1858. The midpoint of the drop from 1892.50 is 1848. If the ES spends most of a day session above that level I would conclude that the market is headed to new highs.
QQQ:  Downside target is 83.50. More weakness than that would probably break the 200 day moving average which would be a very bearish development.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  If crude has spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 508, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Guesstimates on April 15, 2014



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1822-1834. I think a drop of at least 110-150 points is underway.
QQQ:  Downside target is 83.50. More weakness than that would probably break the 200 day moving average which would be a very bearish development.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  If crude has spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 508, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Guesstimates on April 14, 2014



June S&P E-mini Futures: I think a drop of at least 110-150 points is underway. Today’s range estimate is 1815-1834.
QQQ:  Downside target is 83.50. More weakness than that would probably break the 200 day moving average which would be a very bearish development.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  If crude spends a day trading above 103 resistance I will look for continuation up to 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish. .
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 506, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower..