Guesstimates on November 25, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1106- 1116. I think the 1126 level will be reached within a few days.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I have been leaning on resistance near 150. A New York close above 151.00 will mean that this resistance has failed and that the market is headed for 160.

Dollar-Yen: I am still betting that the 87.13 low will hold, but a close below 86.50 will mean that the market is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Sentiment is very bullish. But there is still no convincing evidence for an imminent top. I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - December Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

sold long unit at 1099.25

 

Long one unit at 1103.50

 

Guesstimates on November 24, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1100- 1112. I think the 1126 level will be reached within the next week or so.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target at 1165 has been reached. Sentiment is very bullish. But there is still no convincing evidence for an imminent top. So I now think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - December Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of the last ten e-mini day sessions. The market started the pit session today with a high volume rally which carried to within a point of its recent high. There the buyers lost their enthusiasm. But sellers failed to turn out in force - the e-minis dropped only about as much as they have during recent reactions (purple rectangles).

As long as this reaction doesn't carry the market much below 1100 I will be operating on the hypothesis that it is headed for midpoint resistance at 1126 (red dashed line). This week is a holiday week in the U.S. so trading will be slow, especially during the afternoon and during Friday's short pit session.

 

sold long unit at 1104.25

 

Long one unit at 1106.25

 

Guesstimates on November 23, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1096- 1112. I think the 1126 level will be reached within the next week or so.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target at 1165 has been reached. Sentiment is very bullish. But there is still no convincing evidence for an imminent top. So I now think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - December Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

Guesstimates on November 20, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1080- 1095. This morning the market dropped to within a point of its last low at 1082.50. I think that level will be broken briefly but a move up to 1126 should begin soon.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: There is still no sign of a top in the making. Next upside target is 1165. Meantime support is at 1075.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

Supply shock

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. A supply shock hit the market this morning (red arrows and red dash oval). The question now is whether or not this shock means that the market is headed back down to 1030 or so.

When I approach a question like this one I always try to interpret the new evidence provided by the market in the context of the longer term situation. I have said before that I think the 1026 low on November 2 was comparable in importance to the July 8 low at 866. As yet I see no evidence that would make me change my mind on this point.

So I am not inclined to interpret this supply shock too bearishly just yet. Instead I think the market is in the process of establishing a new trading area between roughly 1083 and 1100. If so it would only be the first lower area relative to the previous one between 1100 and 1112 (highest dashed rectangle). Most up trends survive one or even two lower trading ranges without reversing.

I am going to lean on the last reaction low on the way up at 1082.50 (horizontal green dash line).
As long as no significant trading activity occurs below that level I will stick with my view that a new step upwards is imminent and will take the e-minis to 1126 and eventually higher than that early next year.

 

Guesstimates on November 19, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1093- 1105. At the bottom of this range the market will match the length of the last break and stand at midpoint support defined by that break. I expect to see this rally reach the 1126 level within a few days.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: There is still no sign of a top in the making. Next upside target is 1165. Meantime support is at 1075.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.