Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Guesstimates on May 24, 2016



June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is likely to rally into the 2063-71 range. Any bigger rally would mean that the market is headed above 2105. Support today is at 2049. I expect the ES to move above its 2015 top at 2134 during the coming months.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: Instead of heading lower as I expected the Euro is rallying toward last year’s top at 1.17. If it starts spending time above that top a new bull market in the Euro will be underway. Until then I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  The dollar-yen reached its first downside target at 108 and then rallied into the 111-113 resistance zone, stopping at 111.82. The current leg down should carry to 104.
June Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Resistance at 48 has been reached and if this is overcome the next upside target will be 55. Support is at 41.
June Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Monday, May 23, 2016

Guesstimates on May 23, 2016



June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is likely to rally into the 2063-71 range. Any bigger rally would mean that the market is headed above 2105. Support today is at 2039. I expect the ES to move above its 2015 top at 2134 during the coming months.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: Instead of heading lower as I expected the Euro is rallying toward last year’s top at 1.17. If it starts spending time above that top a new bull market in the Euro will be underway. Until then I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  The dollar-yen reached its first downside target at 108 and then rallied into the 111-113 resistance zone, stopping at 111.82. The current leg down should carry to 104.
June Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Resistance at 48 has been reached and if this is overcome the next upside target will be 55. Support is at 41.
June Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Guesstimates on May 20, 2016



June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is likely to rally into the 2063-71 range. Any bigger rally would mean that the market is headed above 2105. I expect the ES to move above its 2015 top at 2134 during the coming months.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: Instead of heading lower as I expected the Euro is rallying toward last year’s top at 1.17. If it starts spending time above that top a new bull market in the Euro will be underway. Until then I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  The dollar-yen reached its first downside target at 108 and then rallied into the 111-113 resistance zone, stopping at 111.82. The current leg down should carry to 104.
June Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Resistance at 48 has been reached and if this is overcome the next upside target will be 55. Support is at 41.
June Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.