Monday, July 06, 2015

Guesstimates on July 6, 2015



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2046-2064. The 200 day moving average stands at 2047 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. The ES is showing a lot of resiliency in the face of bad news and this leads me to believe we are seeing a correction within an ongoing bull market.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy which has bearish long run implications. Shorter term, however, the picture is bullish if the Euro can hold above 1.10. Then I think will continue upward into the 1.18-1.20 zone. Otherwise the bear market has already resumed and will put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.
August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90 and was nearly reached. Support is 80.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has broken support at 85 and I think it is now on its way to 70.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

Friday, July 03, 2015

Guesstimates on July 3, 2015



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2066-72. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. I think the failure of the market to drop much below last Sunday night’s 2054 low in the face of bad news from Greece is a sign of strength and this leads me to believe this correction may well be over.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy which has bearish long run implications. Shorter term, however, the picture is bullish if the Euro can hold above 1.10. Then I think will continue upward into the 1.18-1.20 zone. Otherwise the bear market has already resumed and will put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.
August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90 and was nearly reached. Support is 80.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has broken support at 85 and I think it is now on its way to 70.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

Thursday, July 02, 2015

Attention Traders

As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. So far this year my seminar day trades have generated a return of 88% trading one contract per 10k in equity (almost 4 times the day trading margin requirement).

Of course the real reason for joining your fellow traders at my seminar is to learn my trading techniques which you will find quite unusual. I focus on identifying support and resistance levels, especially those in accord with my theory of repetition in markets. I think these ideas will open you eyes to new ways of taking advantage of market swings. 

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

George Lindsay vs. the Central Banks


The Dow has reached a critical juncture in the still-ongoing three peaks and a domed house pattern identified by George Lindsay 60 years ago. I have labeled the Dow chart at the top of this post with the most bearish interpretation I can see. The schematic shows the ideal 3PDH formation with its associated labels.

I think it is perfectly reasonable to interpret the May 19 top in the Dow as point 23, the top of the domed house and the bull market top. The entire sequence from points 15 to point 25 on the Dow chart is a very "flattened" version of the schematic but has all the important elements. In particular, points 21-25 form a nearly perfect "head and shoulders" top.

Another supporting piece of evidence for this interpretation is that point 23 is almost exactly 7 months and 10 days from point 10. Normally this time interval is measured from point 14 but on the Dow chart I don't think point 14 came until the market had risen above its preceding 3 peaks, a very unusual configuration.

If this interpretation is correct then the Dow should start spending time below its 200 day moving average and continue downward at least to a level below point 10, its October 2014 low.

But here is a problem. The world central banks are determined to provide enough liquidity through their QE programs to inflate asset prices sufficiently to keep their respective economies moving forward and to avoid slipping into recession. Even though the Fed has halted its own QE program world-wide increases in liquidity do not respect national boundaries. The capital market is a global one. I happen to think that this liquidity increase is likely to prevent anything like a bear market in the US stock market until these QE policies change.

So where does that leave George Lindsay in his battle against the world central banks? On the losing side, I'm afraid. That said I try not to be dogmatic about markets. In this case am willing to go with the bearish 3PDH interpretation if the Dow starts spending time beneath its 200 day moving average.

Guesstimates on July 2, 2015



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2067-83. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. I think the failure of the market to drop much below its Sunday night 2054 low in the face of bad news from Greece is a sign of strength and this leads me to believe this correction may well be over.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy which has bearish long run implications. Shorter term, however, the picture is bullish if the Euro can hold above 1.10. Then I think will continue upward into the 1.18-1.20 zone. Otherwise the bear market has already resumed and will put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.
August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90 and was nearly reached. Support is 80.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has broken support at 85 and I think it is now on its way to 70.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.