Friday, May 22, 2015

Guesstimates on May 22, 2015



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2115-2127. I still think the ES is headed for 2146. However a drop below 2113 would mean that the market is headed into the 2180-2100 range first.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  Support is at 1.10.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 64 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
June Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has moved above 90 resistance and now appears to be headed back to its all-time high of 120.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Guesstimates on May 21, 2015

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2113-2126. I still think the ES is headed for 2146. However a drop below 2113 would mean that the market is headed into the 2180-2100 range first.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  Support is at 1.10.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 64 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
June Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for 68. Resistance above the market is at 90.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Attention Traders

As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 112% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 211% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

Lindsay update


During the past few days the Dow has made new bull market highs. I have been tracking the progress of the Dow through what I think may well be an example of George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation. The bottom chart is a schematic of a typical 3PDH.

In my last post on this subject  I identified the February low as point 20 whereas now I am inclined to see it as point 14 as it is now labeled on the Dow chart above. I think the recent sideways action represents the "five reversals" portion of the domed house with point 20 the early May low. This reinterpretation puts point 23, the likely bull market top in this scenario, well ahead of us. Using Lindsay's 7 month 10 day rule and measuring this duration of time from point 14 we get to roughly mid-September as a likely time for point 23.

As I have often said Lindsay's methods have not worked very well during this 6+ year bull market. The driving force behind the advance has been the QE policies of central banks, not any natural rhythm which Lindsay saw in the Dow. I don't know when this will change although certainly a tapering move by the ECB or by the Bank of Japan would have very bearish effects on world markets.

In the mean time I think it is best to watch the 200 day moving average of the Dow (red line). A drop below that moving average will mean that the domed house is complete and the minimum downside expectation would then be for a drop below point 10 on the Dow chart - the October 15, 2014 low point.

Guessstimates on May 20, 2015



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2118-2134. I think the ES is headed for 2146. Support beneath the market is at 2118.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  Resistance above the market at 1.12 has been broken. The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 64 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
June Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for 68. Resistance above the market is at 90.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.