Friday, June 24, 2016

Guesstimates on June 24, 2016



September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped to 1999 on news that Britain has voted to leave the EU. I think most of the drop is over but not all of it. Resistance above the market is at 2058 while the next downside target is 1982.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Last night the yen traded down to 99.00. A rally to 104-06 is likely. Next downside target is 95.
August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The upside target at 1365 was reached last night. Support is now at 1250. Next upside target is 1420.
July Silver: Resistance at 18.00 was reached last night. Support is at 16.00 and next upside target is 20.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Guesstimates on June 23, 2016



September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES rallied nearly 30 points from yesterday’s close on new Brexit polling results. The Brexit vote results come out after the close and bettors expect “stay in” to prevail. If it does then the ES is likely to rally briefly but soon after resume its downswing and drop below 2040.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Resistance is 111-113. Next downside target is 100.
August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1365. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Guesstimates on June 22, 2016



September S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance remains at 2086. The Brexit vote results come out tomorrow after the close and bettors expect “stay in” to prevail. If it does then the ES is likely to rally briefly but then I think the ES will resume its downswing and drop below 2040.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Resistance is 111-113. Next downside target is 100.
August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1365. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.