Thursday, November 15, 2018

Guesstimates on November 15, 2018


December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped below the 2700-10 support zone by yesterday’s close. Unless the market can reestablish itself above 2710 the prognosis is for a drop to the October 29 low at 2603 or lower. A decline that far will have longer term bearish implications. The recent top at 2818 would then stand out as a lower top of a big rally which followed a significant downside penetrations of several 200 day moving averages.
QQQ: The drop from 187 apparently has further to go. Downside target is 155.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Downside target is 52.
Gold: Support is in the 1215-20 zone has failed. Downside target is 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG has ended its drop from its 1295 high. If not then 975 is the worst I see on the downside.
Apple:  AAPL dropped below 198 support and is headed for 160.
Facebook:  FB now headed for 125.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 in the face of the tech massacre and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Guesstimates on November 14, 2018


December S&P E-mini Futures: There is strong support in the 2700-10 zone and the odds favor a low there followed by a swing up above the recent 2818 top. But if this drop instead carries the market close to its 2603 low it will have longer term bearish implications. For then the recent top at 2818 will stand out as a lower top of a big rally which followed a significant downside penetrations of several 200 day moving averages.
QQQ: The drop from 187 has probably ended. If so next upside target is 195.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Downside target is now 52.
Gold: Support is in the 1215-20 zone has failed. Downside target is 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG has ended its drop from its 1295 high. If not then 975 is the worst I see on the downside.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 250. Support is at 198.
Facebook:  FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Guesstimates on November 13, 2018


December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped right through what I thought would be support in the 2751-59 zone yesterday. The 2700-10 zone is the next stop. I think there is a good chance that the drop from 2818 will end there. But if this drop instead carries the market close to its 2603 low it will have longer term bearish implications. For then the recent top at 2818 will stand out as a lower top of a big rally which followed a significant downside penetrations of several 200 day moving averages.
QQQ: The drop from 187 has probably ended. If so next upside target is 195.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Downside target is 58.
Gold: Support is in the 1215-20 zone has failed. Downside target is 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG has ended its drop from its 1295 high. If not then 975 is the worst I see on the downside.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 250. Support is at 198.
Facebook:  FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone.
Visa: Support is now 125.