Friday, November 21, 2014

Guesstimates on November 21, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2060-2072. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  Even so the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.
January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 or below.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1200-10.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Guesstimates on November 20, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2036-2048. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level Tuesday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.
QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.
January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 or below.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Attention Traders

As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 167% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

yen and euro



Here are monthly bar charts of the Japanese yen (top) and the Euro (bottom).

Japan and the euro-zone are the two arenas where central banks (the BOJ and the ECB) are battling declining nominal gross domestic product by pursuing policies of quantitative easing. These policies, if implemented with determination and persistence, will increase growth rates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by raising asset prices, depreciating the domestic currency, and encouraging investment. The increase in asset prices will be world-wide and not simply domestic since these are two of the world's biggest economies. So these QE policies have positive implications for the US stock market too.

The Bank of Japan is aggressively pursuing a QE policy and I expect this will continue until Japan's nominal GDP shows a pattern of strong growth. As long as the BOJ sticks with its QE policy the trend in Japanese stock prices will be upward and the trend in the yen downward. I think the yen will probably drop into the 68-70 zone (top chart). This would correspond to a dollar-yen level of about 1.45 versus the current 1.17.

In Europe the ECB's QE policy currently is mostly verbal posturing. but I think the European economies will so underperform expectations that Germany will panic and loosen the reins holding back the ECB. This may first require a further drop in European stock prices below their October lows. But when all is said and done I think the Euro will plunge below the 1.16-1.20 zone encompassing the lows of the past eight years and continue down to 0.82, the level of the 2000 low 14 years ago.

Of course, should either or both of these central banks halt their QE policies before they attain the desired results their respective currencies will reverse course and head upward. Indeed I think we can monitor the central banks' determination to stick with QE policies by seeing if the downtrend in currency prices continues. I think it will but I try not to underestimate the difficulty of pursuing sensible monetary policy, difficulty the 1929-1932 world depression exemplifies.

Guesstimates on November 19, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2043-2054. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level yesterday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.
QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.
January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 or below.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.