Friday, October 24, 2014

Guesstimates on October 24, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1938-1956. I think last week’s low ended a reaction in a bull market and that the averages are headed above their September highs.
QQQ: Upside target is 102.
TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86% and I now think that low yield marked the start of a move to and above the 3.00% level.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. AAPL resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I now think that BABA is headed for 103.  
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Attention Traders

As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 167% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

all clear?






As you know I have been thinking that a bear market has begun ever since all three of my main trend indicators at the top of this post dropped below their respective 50 day moving averages (green line). Subsequently the Dow and the S&P 500 also dropped below their 200 day averages (red lines). I thought this event had very bearish implications because the drop below the 200 day moving averages was accompanied by very high trading volume.

You can see on the charts above that both the Dow and the S&P have snapped back quickly and have retraced all of the drop below the 200 day moving averages and then some. AS I write this both the Dow and the S&P are back above their 200 day averages while the NYSE advance-decline line never dropped below its 200 day average.

The strength of the rally off of the October 15 low point is also evident in the NYSE advancing issues numbers. The 5 day oscillator is seen in the bottom chart. If you look closely you will notice that a couple of days ago this 5 day average had equaled its highest level of the past 12 months. This kind of strength is generally associated with the first stage of a much bigger swing upward.

I now believe that the October 15 lows ended the drop from the September top and that new bull market highs lie ahead. One check on this assessment will be the behavior of the market averages and the advance-decline line relative to their 50 day moving averages (green line). Right now all three are still below these averages and my best guess is that there will be several substantial price swings in both directions before at least two of these three trend indicators move back above their 50 day averages and thus sound the "all clear" siren.

Assuming that the October 15 low ended the drop from the September top I think the next upswing is likely to match the February - September 2014 rally in extent. That rally moved the cash S&P 500 up 280 points. This would make the 2100 level the upside target for the move up from the October 15 low at 1820 in th eS&P 500.

Guesstimates on October 23, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1945. A close in the cash S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis. Unless and until this I am sticking with my bearish view.
QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis.
TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86%. Further stock market weakness would drop the 10 year yield to 1.60%. But if no such weakness develops I think the 10 year yield will begin an extended trend upwards above the 3.00% level.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Guesstimates on October 22, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1943. A close in the S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis, especially because the 4 day rally we have just seen has the characteristics of a “kick-off” for a much bigger trend. But for the time being I am sticking with my bearish view.
QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis.
TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86%. Further stock market weakness would drop the 10 year yield to 1.60%. But if no such weakness develops I think the 10 year yield will begin an extended trend upwards above the 3.00% level.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.