Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Guesstimates on January 31, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1310-1324. The persistent rally from yesterday's 1296 low makes me think that it ended a drop of 34 points, why of my minimum expectation of 40 points, and that a move to 1330 and higher is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Guesstimates on January 30, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1296-1308. A drop of 40-50 points is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Guesstimates on January 27, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 12990-1314. A drop of 40-50 points is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940. The Fed announcement has made the market reassess its estimate of likely interest rate differentials between the EU and the US . It now expects EU rates to be relatively higher than it previously thought.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Guesstimates on January 26, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1320-1333. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 has produced a big rally. It should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. A move to 1.2400 will then be in the cards. The Fed announcement yesterday has made the market reassess its estimate of likely interest rate differentials between the EU and the US . It now expects EU rates to be relatively higher than it previously thought.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Fed Failure

Today at 12:30 pm the Fed announced that it expected short term interest rates to stay near zero for the next two years.

Very low short term interest rates are always associated with weak economic activity. So the Fed is telling us that it expects to fail. It has announced that it believes all of its efforts during the past two years to stimulate the economy will come to naught.

Of course the Fed may be wrong about this. Indeed, its economic forecasting record is no better than anyone else's despite the enormous resources it devotes to such activity. But the sad thing is that the US central bank seems content to fail. I don't get it.

Headed higher

Here is a daily bar chart showing trading in the March '12 e-minis going back to the October 4, 2011 low. I still think the market is headed higher. A rally from the November 25 low which matches the size of the initial 221 point rally off of the October low would carry the ES to 1370 or so, just about the level of the May 2011 top (blue dash rectangles).

The 5, 10, and 20 day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are overbought and showing bearish divergences. At the same time the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio (also on my chart page) is at its lowest level in more than 6 months. Moreover, the AAII sentiment survey shows more bullish sentiment than at any time during the past year. This indicator configuration suggests that a break bigger than any seen since the 71 point break in December is imminent.

A repetition of that last 71 point drop would bring the ES down to 1250 or so (purple dash rectangles). That level is also at the confluence of the lower trend lines of the red and green dash trend channels I have drawn on the chart. I doubt that any such reaction will last more than two weeks or so and expect the market to quickly recover and head into the target zone outlined by the green oval.

Guesstimates on January 25, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1298-1310. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Guesstimates on January 24, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1295-1308. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Guesstimates on January 23, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1302-1314. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Guesstimates on January 20, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1299-1312. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Lindsay update



I last commented on my Lindsay analysis of the stock market nearly 6 months ago, in early August 2011. At the time it looked like the May 2, 2011 top was point 23 of a major domed house formation which had been evolving since the start of 2010. The normal expectation of the drop following point 23 is that it would take the market below point 10. In that major formation point 10 was the July 2010 low which in the Dow was at 9,614.

Now take a look at the daily chart of the Dow above this post. It goes back to the start of 2011. Point 23 of the major domed house was the May 2 top at 12,876. The drop to the October 4, 2011 low ended at 10,404, a level substantially above the normal expectation for a major 3 peaks and a domed house formation. So the question is whether or not that big formation has been completed with the subnormal drop into October 2011 low.

I think the odds now favor the view that the October 2011 low was in fact point 26 of the major formation and that point 27 lies just ahead of us (see the 3 peaks, domed house schematic at the top of this post). There have been occasions in the past where point 27 has been higher than point 23 and that is what I think will happen now. If this inference is correct then the the current rally in the Dow will carry the average to 13,000 or somewhat higher but then will be followed by a drop to or below 9,600.I have three reasons for this conclusion.

The first revolves around Lindsay's 12 year time period from major highs to major lows. There was a bull market top in the Dow in February of 2000. The 12 year period, which averages about 12 years and 8 months, predicts a significant low in the Dow around October of 2012, twelve years and eight months after the 2000 bull market top.

Secondly, the 2004 low point which was associated with substantial pessimism about the economy and stock prices, occurred in August of that year. Lindsay often observed that important lows are often echoed by important lows 8 year later. This points to August 2012 as a possible low point.

Finally, I think that the Dow has traced out a pretty clearly defined minor three peaks and a domed house formation beginning with the February 2011 top. I have labeled the key turning points on the daily Dow chart above. The three peaks, points 3, 5, and 7, spanned a 5 month period, not the 6-10 month period which is typically found in major formations. Still, 5 months is not far short of this 6-10 month interval and is long enough to make be think this is an important example of a three peaks and domed house.

I think point 10 of this formation occurred at the October 2011 low. As far as I can tell there are no obvious points 12 or 14, perhaps because this is not a fully developed major formation. But the five reversals, points 15-20, appear pretty clearly on this chart. The market is now on its way up from point 20 which was the December 18 low.

The next phase should be the development of points 21-25 which usually looks like a somewhat misshapen head and shoulder top. Point 23 should be above the highest of the three peaks which was point 5 at 12,876 in the Dow.

The timing of point 23 is more difficult to determine. Normally short bear market declines last about 8 months or a little less. If the 12 year period gives us a low in October 2012, then the preceding top should be in February, i.e within the next six weeks.

But I think the key thing to watch for is the development of points 21-25, the dome of the domed house. As I said, this should resemble a head and shoulders formation with point 23 above 12,876 in the Dow. The break below the neckline of such a formation would be the start of a drop to 9,600 or so.

Guesstimates on January 19, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1299-1312. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Guesstimates on January 18, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1290-1303. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Guesstimates on January 17, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1291-1308. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Guesstimates on January 13, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1287. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Guesstimates on January 12, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1287-97. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

update

Here is a daily bar chart showing the past five months price action in the March '12 e-mini futures.

Looking at this chart is it is obvious that the current trend is upward and has been since the October 4 low at 1062. The market is trying to breakout above its early December and late October high points (red dash lines).

The fact that volume has been so low during this breakout attempt and that the five and ten day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are showing minor bearish divergences suggest that this first attempt will fail. But whatever reaction materializes should end above the December 18 low at 1195.50. The drop into that low was about 70 points and a similar size drop from yesterday's 1292 high would bring the ES down to 1222 (purple dash rectangles). The 1222 level is also right on top of the bottom trendline of the bullish trend channel I have drawn.

Whether the current breakout attempt fails or succeeds I think that the ES will move substantially higher during the next few months. The October rally was 221 points and a similar size rally from the November 25 low at 1142 would put the ES at 1363 (blue dash rectangles).

I still see a lot of pessimistic assessments of US and European economic performance for the coming year. But I think the summer 2011 drop discounted the worst that is likely to happen. So I think that the markets, both here and in Europe, are in the process of climbing the "wall of worry" which under-girds all big bull market swings.

Guesstimates on January 11, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-85. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Guesstimates on January 10, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1282-1294. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, January 09, 2012

Guesstimates on January 9, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-1286. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, January 06, 2012

Guesstimates on January 6, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1288. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro broke below 1.2820 support. Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Guesstimates on January 5, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1267-80. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Guesstimates on January 4, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-71. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

2012 daily guesstimates

DECEMBER

December 31 - 8:30 am ET

December 28 - 8:30 am ET
December 27 - 8:30 am ET
December 26 - 8:30 am ET
December 24 - 8:30 am ET

December 21 - 8:30 am ET
December 20 - 8:30 am ET
December 19 - 8:30 am ET
December 18 - 8:30 am ET
December 17 - 8:30 am ET

December 14 - 8:30 am ET
December 13 - 8:30 am ET
December 12 - 8:30 am ET
December 11 - 8:30 am ET
December 10 - 8:30 am ET

December 7 - 8:30 am ET
December 6 - 8:30 am ET
December 5 - 8:30 am ET
December 4 - 8:30 am ET
December 3 - 8:30 am ET


NOVEMBER

November 30 - 8:30 am ET
November 29 - 8:30 am ET
November 28 - 8:30 am ET
November 27 - 8:30 am ET
November 26 - 8:30 am ET

November 23 - 8:30 am ET
November 21 - 8:30 am ET
November 20 - 8:30 am ET
November 19 - 8:30 am ET

November 16-  8:30 am ET
November 15 - 8:30 am ET
November 14 - 8:30 am ET
November 13 - 8:30 am ET
November 12 - 8:30 am ET

November 9 - 8:30 am ET
November 8 - 8:30 am ET
November 7 - 8:30 am ET
November 6 - 8:30 am ET
November 5 - 8:30 am ET

November 2 - 8:30 am ET
November 1 - 8:30 am ET

OCTOBER

October 31 - 8:30 am ET
October 30 - 8:30 am ET
October 29 - 8:30 am ET

October 26 - 8:30 am ET
October 25 - 8:30 am ET
October 24 - 8:30 am ET
October 23 - 8:30 am ET
October 22 - 8:30 am ET

October 19 - 8:30 am ET
October 18 - 8:30 am ET
October 17 - 8:30 am ET
October 16 - 8:30 am ET
October 15 - 8:30 am ET

October 12 - 8:30 am ET
October 11 - 8:30 am ET
October 10 - 8:30 am ET
October 9 - 8:30 am ET
October 8 - 8:30 am ET

October 5 - 8:30 am ET
October 4 - 8:30 am ET
October 3 - 8:30 am ET
October 2 - 8:30 am ET
October 1 - 8:30 am ET

SEPTEMBER


September 28 - 8:30 am ET
September 27 - 8:30 am ET
September 26 - 8:30 am ET
September 25 - 8:30 am ET
September 24 - 8:30 am ET

September 21 - 8:30 am ET
September 20 - 8:30 am ET
September 19 - 8:30 am ET
September 18 - 8:30 am ET
September 17 - 8:30 am ET

September 14 - 8:30 am ET
September 13 - 8:30 am ET
September 12 - 8:30 am ET
September 11 - 8:30 am ET
September 10 - 8:30 am ET

September 7 - 8:30 am ET
September 6 - 8:30 am ET
September 5 - 8:30 am ET
September 4 - 8:30 am ET

AUGUST

August 31 - 8:30 am ET
August 30 - 8:30 am ET
August 29 - 8:30 am ET
August 28 - 8:30 am ET
August 27 - 8:30 am ET

August 24 - 8:30 am ET
August 23 - 8:30 am ET
August 22 - 8:30 am ET
August 21 - 8:30 am ET
August 20 - 8:30 am ET

August 17 - 8:30 am ET
August 16 - 8:30 am ET
August 15 - 8:30 am ET
August 14 - 8:30 am ET
August 13 - 8:30 am ET

August 10 - 8:30 am ET
August 9 - 8:30 am ET
August 8 - 8:30 am ET
August 7 - 8:30 am ET
August 6 - 8:30 am ET

August 3 - 8:30 am ET
August 2 - 8:30 am ET
August 1 - 8:30 am ET

JULY

July 31 - 8:30 am ET
July 30 - 8:30 am ET

July 27 - 8:30 amET
July 26 - 8:30 am ET
July 25 - 8:30 am ET
July 24 - 8:30 am ET
July 23 - 8:30 am ET

July 20 - 8:30 am ET
July 19 - 8:30 am ET
July 18 - 8:30 am ET
July 17 - 8:30 am ET
July 16 - 8:30 am ET

July 12 - 8:30 am ET
July 11 - 8:30 am ET
July 10 - 8:30 am ET
July 9 - 8:30 am ET

July 6 - 8:30 am ET
July 5 - 8:30 am ET
July 3 - 8:30 am ET
July 2 - 8:30 am ET

JUNE

June 29 - 8:30 am ET
June 28 - 8:30 am ET
June 27 - 8:30 am ET
June 26 - 8:30 am ET
June 25 - 8:30 am ET

June 22 - 8:30 am ET
June 21 - 8:30 am ET
June 20 - 8:30 am ET
June 19 - 8:30 am ET
June 18 - 8:30 am ET

June 15 - 8:30 am ET
June14 -  8:30 am ET
June 13 - 8:30 am ET
June 12 - 8:30 am ET
June 11 - 8:30 am ET

June 8 - 8:30 am ET
June 7 - 8:30 am ET
June 6 - 8:30 am ET
June 5 - 8:30 am ET
June 4 - 8:30 am ET

June 1 - 8:30 am ET

MAY

May 31 - 8:30 am ET
May 30 - 8:30 am ET
May 29 - 8:30 am ET

May 25 - 8:30 am ET
May 24 - 8:30 am ET
May 23 - 8:30 am ET
May 22 - 8:30 am ET
May 21 - 8:30 am ET

May 18 - 8:30 am ET
May 17 - 8:30 am ET
May 16 - 8:30 am ET
May 15 - 8:30 am ET
May 14 - 8:30 am ET

May 11 - 8:30 am ET
May 10 - 8:30 am ET
May 9 - 8:30 am ET
May 8 - 8:30 am ET
May 7 - 8:30 am ET

May 4 - 8:30 am ET  
May 3 - 8:30 am ET
May 2 - 8:30 am ET
May 1 - 8:30 am ET

APRIL

April 30 - 8:30 am ET

April 27 - 8:30 am ET
April 26 - 8:30 am ET
April 25 - 8:30 am ET
April 24 - 8:30 am ET
April 23 - 8:30 am ET

April 20 - 8:30 am ET
April 19 - 8:30 am ET
April 18 - 8:30 am ET
April 17 - 8:30 am ET
April 16 - 8:30 am ET

April 13 - 8:30 am ET
April 12 - 8:30 am ET
April 11 - 8:30 am ET
April 10 - 8:30 am ET
April 9 - 8:30 am ET

April 5 - 8:30 am ET
April 4 - 8:30 am ET
April 3 - 8:30 am ET
April 2 - 8:30 am ET

MARCH

March 30 - 8:30 am ET
March 29 - 8:30 am ET
March 28 - 8:30 am ET
March 27 - 8:30 am ET
March 26 - 8:30 am ET

March 23 - 8:30 am ET
March 22 - 8:30 am ET
March 21 - 8:30 am ET
March 20 - 8:30 am ET
March 19 - 8:30 am ET

March 16 - 8:30 am ET
March 15 - 8:30 am ET
March 14 - 8:30 am ET
March 13 - 8:30 am ET
March 12 - 8:30 am ET

March 9 - 8:45 am ET
March 8 - 8:45 am ET
March 7 - 8:45 am ET
March 6 - 8:45 am ET
March 5 - 8:45 am ET

March 2 - 8:45 am ET
March 1 - 8:45 am ET

FEBRUARY

February 29 - 8:45 am ET
February 28 - 8:45 am ET
February 27 - 8:45 am ET

February 24 - 8:45 am ET
February 23 - 8:45 am ET
February 22 - 8:45 am ET
February 21 - 8:45 am ET

February 17 - 8:45 am ET
February 16 - 8:45 am ET
February 15 - 8:45 am ET
February 14 - 8:45 am ET
February 13 - 8:45 am ET

February 10 - 8:45 am ET
February 9 - 8:45 am ET
February 8 - 8:45 am ET
February 7 - 8:45 am ET
February 6 - 8:45 am ET

February 3 - 8:45 am ET
February 2 - 8:45 am ET
February 1 - 8:45 am ET


JANUARY

January 31 - 8:45 am ET
January 30 - 8:45 am ET

January 27 - 8:45 am ET
January 26 - 8:45 am ET
January 25 - 8:45 am ET
January 24 - 8:45 am ET
January 23 - 8:45 am ET

January 20 - 8:45 am ET
January 19 - 8:45 am ET
January 18 - 8:45 am ET
January 17 - 8:45 am ET

January 13 - 8:45 am ET
January 12 - 8:45 am ET
January 11 - 8:45 am ET
January 10 - 8:45 am ET
January 9 - 8:45 am ET

January 6 - 8:45 am ET
January 5 - 8:45 am ET
January 4 - 8:45 am ET
January 3 - 8:45 am ET