Headed higher

Here is a daily bar chart showing trading in the March '12 e-minis going back to the October 4, 2011 low. I still think the market is headed higher. A rally from the November 25 low which matches the size of the initial 221 point rally off of the October low would carry the ES to 1370 or so, just about the level of the May 2011 top (blue dash rectangles).

The 5, 10, and 20 day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are overbought and showing bearish divergences. At the same time the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio (also on my chart page) is at its lowest level in more than 6 months. Moreover, the AAII sentiment survey shows more bullish sentiment than at any time during the past year. This indicator configuration suggests that a break bigger than any seen since the 71 point break in December is imminent.

A repetition of that last 71 point drop would bring the ES down to 1250 or so (purple dash rectangles). That level is also at the confluence of the lower trend lines of the red and green dash trend channels I have drawn on the chart. I doubt that any such reaction will last more than two weeks or so and expect the market to quickly recover and head into the target zone outlined by the green oval.