Wednesday, January 11, 2012


Here is a daily bar chart showing the past five months price action in the March '12 e-mini futures.

Looking at this chart is it is obvious that the current trend is upward and has been since the October 4 low at 1062. The market is trying to breakout above its early December and late October high points (red dash lines).

The fact that volume has been so low during this breakout attempt and that the five and ten day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are showing minor bearish divergences suggest that this first attempt will fail. But whatever reaction materializes should end above the December 18 low at 1195.50. The drop into that low was about 70 points and a similar size drop from yesterday's 1292 high would bring the ES down to 1222 (purple dash rectangles). The 1222 level is also right on top of the bottom trendline of the bullish trend channel I have drawn.

Whether the current breakout attempt fails or succeeds I think that the ES will move substantially higher during the next few months. The October rally was 221 points and a similar size rally from the November 25 low at 1142 would put the ES at 1363 (blue dash rectangles).

I still see a lot of pessimistic assessments of US and European economic performance for the coming year. But I think the summer 2011 drop discounted the worst that is likely to happen. So I think that the markets, both here and in Europe, are in the process of climbing the "wall of worry" which under-girds all big bull market swings.

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