Friday, January 06, 2012

Guesstimates on January 6, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1288. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro broke below 1.2820 support. Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.


dave said...

AAII Sentiment for 1/4/12 is saying the bears have disappeared.

Only 17% bears, not typical bull market numbers.

If we rally into next week, it should get retraced back down by the 20 week cycle low due late Jan.?

Edwin said...

Many market breadth indicators (such as $NYHL, $NYAD) have peaked/rolled over/forming negative divergence.

The US dollar strength will become unforgiving to the advancing equity and commodities.

Another pause to refresh may be at hand.

Adsense said...

first i would like to thak you for
reading between the lines in the
overall stock markets . while i dont agree with you at times i do follow your thoughts,
hoave you looked at the us dollar index multiplied by the dow ??
it shows 5 waves up . i realise that nobody i know of looks at this i will say it has tended to
lead the market .
worth a look