Friday, May 29, 2015

Grexit ????

Western stock markets are again looking for clues which might tell investors whether or not Greece will stay with the Euro currency. I think there is special concern about the Greek banking system which has been losing deposits at a rapid rate. Should this deposit loss continue much longer and should the European Central Bank withdraw its support for the Greek banking system a major financial crisis will hit the Greek economy.

Given these potential economic dangers I think it is useful to see what the Greek stock market has to say about all this. The top chart shows the Athens general share index while the bottom chart shows the Greek stock market ETF with ticker symbol GREK.

What strikes me about these two charts is that during the political/economic crisis brought on by the change of government in January the Greek stock market has held steady at the bottom of a big decline (purple rectangles). I would think that if investors really thought that Greece would abandon the Euro or that the Greek banking system would collapse these two indexes would be rapidly on the way to zero. But this is not what we see in these two charts.  Despite all the anxiety and fears of imminent disaster these two indexes have held steady.

As hard as it may be to believe I think the Greek stock market is telling us that Greece and the EU will successfully muddle through this latest crisis phase. On an even more optimistic note, if these two indices can rally above the declining 200 day moving averages (red lines) I think much better times will be ahead for the Greek economy.

Guesstimates on May 29, 2015



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2110-2122. I think Monday’s 2096 low ended the drop from 2134 and that the ES is headed for 2150. Should the ES instead start accepting prices below 2110 support I would conclude that it is headed first for the 2080-90 range.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  It looks like the Euro has broken support at 1.10. This means that the market is headed below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 64 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
August Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has moved above 90 resistance and now appears to be headed back to its all-time high of 120.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Guesstimates on May 28, 2015



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2114-2128. I now think Monday’s 2096 low ended the drop from 2134 and that the ES is headed for 2150.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  It looks like the Euro has broken support at 1.10. This means that the market is headed below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 64 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
August Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has moved above 90 resistance and now appears to be headed back to its all-time high of 120.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Guesstimates on May 27, 2015



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2098-2112. Yesterday’s break means that the ES is headed for support near 2080. I still think the ES will make new high for the bull market during the coming weeks.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  It looks like the Euro has broken support at 1.10. This means that the market is headed below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 64 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
June Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has moved above 90 resistance and now appears to be headed back to its all-time high of 120.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.