Thursday, June 30, 2011

Guesstimates on June 30, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1299-1312. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I now think the market is headed up to 150.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1485.

SLV - September Silver: Support is at 32.00. This market is about to head upward to resistance at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 700 and above has begun.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

breakout


Here is my five point box, one box reversal chart of the e-minis covering the past four months.

The base surrounding the June 16 low is very extensive and is much bigger than the base associated with the March 2011 low. The March low supported a rally of 135 points. The current base projects a move to 1420 and the market generally exceeds this sort of target in a bull market.

During the past three days the ES rallied from 1257 to 1304. I think this is a breakout from the extensive base which has formed. The breakout price is 1293.75. It is normal for the market to hesitate for a few days after a breakout and drop to or a little below the breakout price during the period of hesitation.

Looking further ahead, I still think that all the action since the February top at 1342 is likely to take the form of a triangle pattern. To complete the pattern the ES should rally to 1342, then drop to 1300 or so. This last drop will be accompanied by warnings of a head-and-shoulders top by chart readers but I think it will only be the last corrective move in the triangle.

Once this triangle is complete the market should stage a very strong rally which will take it above 1400 and possibly to 1500.

Guesstimates on June 29, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1294-1310. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I now think the market is headed up to 150.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1485.

SLV - July Silver: Support is at 32.00. This market is about to head upward to resistance at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: GOOG dropped below 495 support. I expect a recovery above that level this week, but failing that a move to 440 will be in the cards. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Guesstimates on June 28, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-92. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro closed above 142.60 in New York yesterday so I now think the market is headed up to 150.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support. I expect a recovery above that level this week, but failing that a move to 440 will be in the cards. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Monday, June 27, 2011

Guesstimates on June 27, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1264-79. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 142.60. But a New York close above 142.60 would force me to abandon the 137.50 target and move back to the bullish camp.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support. I expect a recovery above that level this week, but failing that a move to 440 will be in the cards. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Guesstimates on June 24, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1276-91. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 142.60. But a New York close above 142.60 would force me to abandon the 137.50 target and move back to the bullish camp.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Lindsay's dome house(s)


Here are two daily charts of the Dow industrials going back to the March 2009 low. I want to discuss the current position of the market within what appears to be an ongoing 3 peaks and a domed house formation. My previous Lindsay commentary can be found here.

Judging from e-mail requests and comments I get George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Dome House is growing in popularity. It even made an appearance on Market Watch a few days ago.

At the top of this post is the interpretation given by every Lindsay fan (except for me, of course). According to this interpretation the top of the domed house (point 23) was the May 2 high. After a couple of lower tops, the market should crash at least as far as its July 2010 low.

I think this interpretation is flawed for two reasons. The minor reason is that there is no obvious "five reversals", triangle type pattern which usually preceded point 21. Even so, not all domed houses are alike and the absence of this triangle by no means negates the domed house interpretation of this chart. A more substantive objection comes from an application of Lindsay's other methods, among them his long time period of 15 years 3 months from low to high.

A major top is normally 15 years and 3 months (give or take a few months) from an important low, often a bear market low. Now there was a low in the Dow on July 16, 1996. It was only of intermediate term significance, but it did occur 12 years and 9 months after the October 1983 top, the Lindsay period from high to low. This makes the July 1996 low a legitimate point from which to count Lindsay's 15 year period. Counting forward 15 years and 3 months from the 1996 low brings us to September 2011, the ideal time for the bull market high. The May 2 top was 4 months early relative to ideal, but again this is not a fatal flaw.

Of more importance is the fact that February 2000 was a very major top in the Dow. Counting forward 12 years and 10 months brings us to December 2012 and the time of a likely major low. Note too that the ideal 4 year cycle would reach its low in March 2013.

This then leads to the conclusion that if May 2011 was a bull market top then the Dow is likely to decline for more than 18 months until its likely low in late 2012 or early 2013. This is quite a bit longer than any of Lindsay's basic declines and it is unusual for any bear market to span more than one basic decline. I also think that calculations using Lindsay's "counts from the middle section" also favor a bull market top later this year or early in 2012. For all of these reasons I do not think that the top in May 2011 will prove to be the bull market top.

These considerations (to say nothing of the wide-spread bearishness now) make me inclined to favor the interpretation you see on the lower chart. In this domed house interpretation the February top started the "five reversals" part of the domed house. Once this part of the pattern is complete the Dow should move to new bull market highs later this year and establish points 21 and 23, the latter being the top of the domed house.

Update

Here is a daily bar chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 2009 bear market low. As you can see the market is still trading above its rising 200 day moving average (lower blue arrow - the upper arrow points to the 50 day moving average). Sentiment is very bearish and I think this makes it likely that the drop from the May 2 top has ended or will end soon and not far from current levels. That implies that the 200 day moving average will show no significant downside penetration and the implication is that new bull market highs will be seen during the next few months.

Today's break is more likely to be a successful test of the June 16 low than the start of a bigger move down. A close today in the cash S&P above 1275 would convince me of this and be very bullish.

But if you happen to be more bearishly inclined it makes sense to identify support levels below the market. The closest one is the rising, green dash, bull market trend line which currently is at 1240 or so. The March 2010 low was 1249 so a drop to 1240 would not only hit support but set up very bullish shakeout situation.

The April 2010 top was at 1219 (red dash line)and this is the next support level on the way down. Typically old tops like this one are broken by 10-20 points before support becomes visible. Below that top is the midpoint of the rally from last July's low to the May 2011 top (purple dash line). This midpoint is at 1186. Below this midpoint is support implied by a repetition of the size of last year's break. That would carry the S&P down to 1153 (blue dash rectangle).

For longer term planning I am going to use the market's action relative to its 200 day moving average as the indicator of the direction of the current long term trend. Right now this moving average is telling us that no bear market is in sight.

Guesstimates on June 23, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1262-77. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 142.60.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Guesstimates on June 22, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1279-94. I now think the drop from the May 2 top at 1268 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 144.35.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Guesstimates on June 21, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1276-90. I now think the drop from the May 2 top at 1268 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 144.35.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Guesstimates on June 20, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1265. I expect the drop from the May 2 high to end this week. My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The break during the past three days has been much bigger than I expected. I think this means that the Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 143.20.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped a little below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 yesterday and now should begin a move to 430.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Guesstimates on June 17, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1269-1284. My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The break during the past three days has been much bigger than I expected. I think this means that the Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 143.20.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has reached support at 495 yesterday and should now begin a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL nearly reached support at 318 yesterday and now should begin a move to 430.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

another New York Times buy signal

Here is is.

Guesstimates on June 16, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1265. My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The break during the past three days has been much bigger than I expected. I think this means that the Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 318.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Guesstimates on June 15, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1270-1283. I think the drop from 1373 is ended at 1259.50. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 141.85.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 318.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Guesstimates on June 14, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1273-1288. I think the drop from 1373 is ended yesterday at 1259.50. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 142.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 318.

Monday, June 13, 2011

Martin Armstrong Day

Today is Martin Armstrong day. It is the day that Armstrong predicted would see the low point in economic confidence which would start dropping in February of 2007, just 8 months before the bull market top in the Dow and S&P in 2007 and the actual beginning of big trouble in the financial stocks and banking sector.

I should say that at the moment Armstrong himself is very bearish on the economy and the stock market. He thinks unemployment is headed for 20% from its current level of 9 %. But his cycle forecast shows an upswing from the June 13, 2011 low which lasts for the next two years and for three of the next four years, bringing the cycle line back to its 2007 high.

I think his forecast, interpreted as a forecast of investor psychology, will prove to be correct. At the moment I think Armstrong's very bearish views show that he has become a part of the phenomenon he forecast rather than standing apart from it.

BUY say the New York Times and Time Magazine

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on June 13, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1275. I think the drop from 1373 is ending. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 144.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Guesstimates on June 10, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate for the September contract is 1274-1286. I think the drop from 1373 is ending now. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 144.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Thursday, June 09, 2011

the rear view mirror

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on June 9, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Switching to the September contract today - it trades 5 points under June. Today's range estimate is 1269-1282. I think the drop from 1373 is ending now. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 144.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Guesstimates on June 8, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1271-1285. I am expecting an end to the drop from 1373 today. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 144.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

update

Here is the updated version of the daily bar chart of the June e-minis which I discussed last week.

As you can see the market has dropped into the strong support zone which I had highlighted in that post. The next development should be a rally to 1340 or so which would represent the fourth wave of a five wave consolidation triangle (thinner purple lines). A subsequent break of 30-40 points down to the lower edge of the bullish trend channel I have drawn should complete the consolidation.

I think this triangle will be resolved by an upside breakout which should bring the ES at least to the 1440 level. I should point out that the bearish sentiment revealed by the put-call numbers is as high or higher than it was at last year's July and August low points. Those lows were followed by a 370 point advance in the ES. A similar rally now would put the ES above the 1600 level.

Guesstimates on June 7, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1282-1297. I am expecting an end to the drop from 1373 somewhere in the 1275-85 range. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 144.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.