Friday, June 03, 2011

update


Here is a daily chart of the June e-minis going back to the February top. I posted this chart on my paid blog yesterday.

As you can see I now think this correction will end in the 1275-85 range (green oval). There the drop from this week's high at 1347 would equal the size of the first leg down from 1373 (smaller blue dash rectangles). The entire drop from 1373 would in turn equal the size of the February-March drop (larger blue dash rectangles). The green target oval also straddles the lower edge of the trend channel I have drawn.

Here is something which may interest you Elliott fans. I think a fourth wave triangle is developing (thin purple lines). It may be the fourth of five waves up from 666 or the fourth of five from 1002. In either case the prognosis is for a rally to a lower top, a test of the low (thus completing the triangle) and then a strong move up to new bull market highs. A move equal in size to the width of the triangle would put the ES at 1440, but I think this is a conservative estimate of the upside potential.

7 comments:

George Rahal said...

Carl, the following is a chart with a trendline that connects the March 09 low with the September 2010 low and with today!

http://george-rahal.blogspot.com/2011/06/s-500-bull-market-trendline.html

Adsense said...

hey carl
the triangle formation is not a true triangle but i do get what yoru saying . not so sure i would call it a 4 more just an a b c d e
B wave of sorts . it also fits with your lindsay count of points 15 through 20 . for me i still noted the small 60 minute 3 peaks domed house which targeted the 1290 area for point 28 and also at todays low can be consdiered point 10 from the daily chart of the dow begining at the april 18 low .
look at weekly chart of XLE it belends with your thoughts on the 3 peaks domed house pattern as well as your present thoughts
joe

dave said...

If you look at many of the big name Dow Stocks, they have classic increased volume on declines.

This is what Livermore called "not acting right".

I'm not bearish yet, but there's a big Hurst 9 year cycle low due later this year to keep an eye on.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Pardon my many posts the past few days . here is my concerns on this market . the 12 yrs 3 month to 12 yrs 8 month from the jan march 2000 top should target a low in mid 2012 . that is important for me from a long term persepective .
shorter term . weekly charts on dow .week of march 2 2009 to the week of april 26 2010 was 60 weeks adding 60 weeks to that top you get the week of june 20 2011.low to high to high .the week of july 6 2009 to the low in the week of june 28 2010 was 51 weeks adding 51 weeks to that low you get the week of june 20 2011 . low to low to high ? again using the low in in the week of july 6 2009 to the high in april 26 2010 that was 42 weeks adding 42 weeks to april 26 2010 you get the week of feb 14 2011.so far that has been an important peak in momentum indicators on the market and as you noted a corrective market since that week so far .from a bullish persepective this decline
has been weaker then many of the prior declines since the march 2009lows . lastly there is the lindsay time spans of bull and bear markets . the run up from the march 2009 lows to the april 2010 highs lasted exactly 414 calendar days . a minimum subnormal advance
a long advance would last 831 calendar days would be the maximum
adding 831 calendar days to march 6 2009 as well as march 9 2009 you come up with the date of june 15 -
june 18th ( a saturday ) 2011.
combining this time span along with the low to high to high count as well as the low to low to high count makes this up coming options expiry an important time line .
and ill finish with something else . it isnt working but worth noting . this decline so far is unfolding very similar to the 1929
dow . if it was perfect then yesterday would have been a swing low and next week by friday would be a swing high . the other similarities are tied with thhe solar eclipse of june 1 and the lunar eclipse of june 15 . ( another reason to consider the june 15-17th cycle turn important )
the similarity to 1929 would call for a low june 23-july 8th . and i would veiw it in a mini version yet it is still there and should be respected when considering lindsay time spans along with the low to low to high counts and low to high to high counts . i have not yet run a top to top count
and honestly not sure where to place the low prior to a swing high in early march in order to make it count correctly .
all for now
joe

order711 said...

Thanks Carl. This is certainly a challenging and frustrating environment to try to predict.

http://www.marketspath.com/ said...

The prblem with the wave count for the bulls-is the same problem the bears had from the 666 lows. Everyone was waiting for wave 5 down to 630/600..and never knew they were wrong until 810 was passed.

So today, many bull wave counters are looking at this decline as wave 4 with wave 5 to 1440 in the near future. They will not know they are wrong until spx breaks 1240..130 points from the highs..strange..it took the bears 140 spx points up to realize there was no wave 5 coming..now it will take the bulls 130 spx points down to realize..there is no wave 5 coming.

Top is already in place..and I am long from the open today and will add at the close if they take out the lows. Expecting spx to make an abc move back to the 1330/1340 next week..just to keep the bulls in the game. Next push lower will gave every bull giving up hope..real bottom coming in October spx 1050/950

Good luck-

marketspath

Jay Strauss said...

Hi carl
Agree with Adsense about June 2012
MAJOR BOTTOM, but still would have another year before climbing out of a HOLE, and some are even talking about the 33 year cycle for 3015 = from 1982

as for this month, come on by and visit anytime- just Google jaywiz
unless you already know of me.

best wishes
Jay