Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Guesstimates on June 15, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1270-1283. I think the drop from 1373 is ended at 1259.50. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 141.85.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 318.


sophia said...

hi Carl,

I have been reading your comments for quite some times now.
I remember that a while ago, you mentionned the 3 ceilings house or something like that. Where do you think that we stand now on that chart?

Adsense said...

Exited puts this morning
not all of them mind you but most of them . the cycle high i was looking for into june 15 appears to be low ,there is still a bearish cycle into july 8th yet
that was also based on june 15 being a high which it does not apear to be at this juncture.
leaving my eyes open to what the market tells me in the coming days .this may become a strong rally from near present levels
and i want to be bearish , just cant justify the risk.

dave said...

So far just typical full moon lows.

Nothing to panic about.

mvbk said...

put/call ratio gettin pretty high now

Fatman said...

it's amazing how bad your calls are, lol

Harold said...

Carl, I love ya but bless your heart, you never see bear cycles coming ever. Right before the crash in 2008 you wer all bulled up because the cover of Newsweek was running negative stories. You are wicked smart, I am not denying you that. But you just cannot ever spot a bear cycle brewing :)

Jeff said...

Rally's like Tuesday are typical Short term SHORT covering. There is no buying power in the market. I was ridiculed before when I mentioned that Carl was a perma bull. There is likely to be no sustained rally at this point and certainly not a move above 1400.00. Even from a fundamental standpoint there is not support from that. The economy is tanking just as I said it would back in the summer of 2010. It has been falsely propped by Ben and his money printing. There will only be a higer stock market if Ben comes up with more printing but that will create even more problems and a more severe depression than we are already heading for. We need to let things fall flat on their faces . It's the only way to recover. Painful in the beginning but much quicker. Ther won't be a depression right now but we are not heading for higher stock market prices anytime soon. Sooner or later Carl will be right and we will head back up but you have been wrong since late April on what is going to happen. That's two months without any consideration for what the market is telling you. We are likely to bottom within a week or two but even after that I'm afraid it will be no better than last summer unless the Fed intervenes again and I can't see what they could possibly do that would instill confidence at this point.