Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Guesstimates on December 11, 2018


December S&P E-mini Futures: The drop below 2603 yesterday looks like a shakeout. The subsequent rally above 2660 is bullish reinforcement and a swing above 2710 would mean that the drop from the September 21 top at 2947 is over.
QQQ: The Q’s made a higher low yesterday compared with a lower low in the S&P. This is the first sign that the drop from the top at 187 may be over. Resistance now is at 167 and 175.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: A drop visibly below 50 would be likely to continue to 43 and possibly lower.
Gold: The 1250-60 zone is likely to halt the rally and the downside target remains 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG is headed above its last top at 1295.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 160.
Facebook:  FB is likely to hold support at 125.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 in the face of the tech massacre and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone. A rally to 175 is underway.
Visa: Support remains at 125.

Monday, December 10, 2018

Guesstimates on December 10, 2018


December S&P E-mini Futures: Buyers keep turning the ES away from support in the 2503-2626 range. A swing above 2660 would be bullish and a swing above 2710 would be very bullish. But until the ES escapes this 2603-2824 range the longer term trend of the market is unidentifiable.
QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: A drop visibly below 50 would be likely to continue to 43 and possibly lower.
Gold: The 1250-60 zone is likely to halt the rally and the downside target remains 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG is headed above its last top at 1295.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 160.
Facebook:  FB is likely to hold support at 125.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 in the face of the tech massacre and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone. A rally to 175 is underway.
Visa: Support remains at 125.

Friday, December 07, 2018

Guesstimates on December 7, 2018


December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the ES rallied from support in the 2603-26 range. Resistance is 2720. If resistance fails then the market will be headed back to the highs of this big trading range at 2814-24. Until it escapes this 2603-2824 range the longer term trend of the market is unidentifiable.
QQQ: The Q’s dropped back below 167 resistance and now are headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Downside target is 103.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: A drop visibly below 50 would be likely to continue to 43 and possibly lower.
Gold: The 1250-60 zone is likely to halt the rally and the downside target remains 1125.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: I think GOOG is headed above its last top at 1295.
Apple:  AAPL is headed for 160.
Facebook:  FB is likely to hold support at 125.
Twitter: TWTR has reestablished itself above 30 in the face of the tech massacre and is now likely to return to 48
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA has made its low in the 130-135 zone. A rally to 175 is underway.
Visa: Support remains at 125.