Monday, December 31, 2007

Guesstimates on December 31, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and using a 1461 stop. I think the next significant move from here will be upward to the next short term target at 1550. I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-16. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 111.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Guesstimates on December 28, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and using a 1461 stop. Despite the overnight rally to 1503 I still think the market has a shot at 1480 or so before it turns upward and moves above 1511. Even so I am going to maintain my position because there is too much uncertainty associated with any projected drop to 1480. Next upside target is 1550 and I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-08. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-04. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 112.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

E-mimi Update

I just put in orders to buy the March e-minis at 1486 using a 1461 stop.

Guesstimates on December 27, 8:36 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Last Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. Support beneath the market is at 1480-45. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Guesstimates on December 26, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Last Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. Support beneath the market is at 1480-45. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Guesstimates on December 24, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Guesstimates on December 21, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading above 1480 resistance. My downside target is still 1395 but whatever high the market makes today will be my “line in the sand”. Higher highs next week will mean that we have already seen the low of the drop from the 1537 high of December 11. In any case I think most of the first quarter of 2008 will be very bullish and that the e-minis will trade above 1600 during that time.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00. Resistance is 51.10.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Guesstimates on December 20, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Guesstimates on December 19, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis rallied from the 1445 level and should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-12. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Guesstimates on December 18, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Stopped out of the March contract yesterday at 1457. It now looks like the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis. Meantime resistance above the market is at 1479.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is now at 640.

Monday, December 17, 2007

E-mini and Spiders Update

Here is an hourly chart showing regular hours trading in the e-minis. My long position was stopped out today at 1457.

The fact that the market closed well below last week's low is a bearish development coming as it does after the lower top at 1537 ( 152.87 in the Spiders). At this juncture I think this means that the market is headed down below its late November low at 1418 in the e-minis and 140.60 in the Spiders. Right now I think that the 1395 level in the e-minis and 138.50 in the Spiders looks likely.

Earlier today I pointed out the bullish divergence between the 5 day moving average of the advancing issues count and the daily readings. I think this divergence will give us a small, 25 point bounce from the 1440-45 range but that a much more important divergence between the market and the 5 day moving average will be seen before the drop from the December 11 top ends.

Advancing Issues

Here is a line chart of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. The purple line is the 5 day moving average of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.

It is my view that the drop which began after the Fed announced its latest rate cut is a normal reaction within an uptrend that began from the low on November 27 at 1417 in the March '08 e-mini contract and 1406 in the cash S&P. The advancing issues chart you see above shows that the market has moved down to an oversold condition roughly as deep as those in early and late November. Moreover, you can see that the daily numbers are making a low higher than the one made earlier on the way down from the December 11 high.

I think this indicator is telling us that the reaction is about over and that the market will soon resume its rally. I expect the e-minis to trade over the 1600 level sometime in January or February.

Guesstimates on December 17, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the March contract from 1482.50 (adjusted for the switch from December) and working a 1457 stop. Upside target is 1555. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Guesstimates on December 14, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the March contract from 1482.50 (adjusted for the switch from December) and working a 1457 stop. Upside target is 1555. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

E-mini Update

I sold December e-minis at 1481.50 and bought March at 1492. Now working a 1457 stop in the March contract.

Guesstimates on December 13, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the December contract at 1472 and working a 1447 stop. Once regular hours trading starts I am going to sell the Decembers and buy the March contract. Then I will cancel the 1447 stop in Decembers and start working a 1457 stop in March. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

E-mini Update

A few minutes ago I was filled at 1472 and am now long the December e-minis with a stop at 1447.

Tomorrow the March '08 contract will become the most active contract. So soon after regular hours trading starts I shall sell my December contracts and simultaneously buy the same number of March contracts. March is trading about 10 points over December so after I make this switch my stop will then be at 1457 in the March contract.

Guesstimates on December 12, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Today I shall be a buyer at 1472 using a 25 point stop. Resistance above the market is at 1495. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Guesstimates on December 11, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance is still at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Guesstimates on December 10, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Friday, December 07, 2007

Guesstimates on December 7, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Thursday, December 06, 2007

E-mini update

I just sold my e-mini long position at 1493. The market is stalling near its previous top after two up days so I think another reaction of 20-30 points is likely, starting here or perhaps near my original 1503 target. In any case I shall be a buyer again on the next reaction.

Guesstimates on December 6, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463. Today I am working a stop at 1472 and plan to sell longs at 1503 if that level is hit today. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market broke support at 87.00 yesterday and so I think it is headed for 79.50 before a 5-10 dollar rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Guesstimates on December 5, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463 and still working the 1438 stop. Next upside target is 1515. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

China

Here is a log scale, daily chart of the Shanghai composite index. I last commented on this chart here.

The bull market in China is alive and well, despite many skeptical naysayers. The Shanghai index has dropped for the past 6 weeks but has reached what I think is strong support in the 4800-5000 zone. The next leg up is about to begin and take this average into the 7500-8000 zone.

Guesstimates on December 4, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer of the e-minis today at 1463 using a 25 point stop. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. I think a 30-50 point break has begun from Friday’s high at 1492. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yest is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Monday, December 03, 2007

The Dollar



Here is the latest cover of The Economist magazine. Above it you will see a monthly chart of the US dollar index covering the past 15 years. I last commented on the dollar here.

In the issue before this cover appeared The Economist was beating up on the dollar, urging the OPEC countries to revalue their currencies and diversify away from dollar assets. I think we can classify The Economist as the biggest dollar bear among the media, even more bearish than the New York Times.

This media parlay is worth betting. The US dollar is going much higher from here.

Guesstimates on December 3, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. I think a 30-50 point break has begun from Friday’s high at 1492. I haven’t entered any orders yet but I expect to be a buyer of the e-minis after the market drops below the 1470 level. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Friday, November 30, 2007

Bond Timers are Bullish


Here is a weekly chart of the yield on the 10 year treasury note. Remember that yields move inversely with bond prices, so when the yield is low the price is high and vice-versa.

Mark Hulbert today observed that the bond market timers he follows are as bullish today as they were back at the yield lows in 2006 around the 4.40% level. In other words, at that time in 2006 bond timers expected yields to drop still further and prices to rise, but exactly the opposite happened.

I think we are about to see history repeat itself here. Bond timers are very bullish but I think the 10 year yield is about to rally back near the 5.00% level. The economy is going to get stronger and stocks will rally as will the US dollar.

Bears Abound

Here is a chart of the American Association of Individual Investors bullish (green) and bearish (red) weekly sentiment reading. The chart comes courtesy of DecisionPoint.com (subscription required, but I think it is worth it!)

The latest bearish % is 56%, a level which has only been equaled or surpassed over the past 4 years by the bearish % at the June 2006 low and the March 2003 low. Both of these instances were followed by strong advances as you can see on the S&P bar chart above the sentiment bars.

This makes me even more confident that new bull market highs lay ahead.

Guesstimates on November 30, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The trend has turned upward and it is now likely that 1406 marked the low of the drop which began from the October 11 top at 1587. This first swing up will probably make it into the 1490-95 zone. From there at 30-50 point break is likely.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: Crude traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has broken below support at 90.00 and the next downside target is 87.00. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1627 high in December silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Guesstimates on November 29, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The trend has turned upward and it is now likely that 1406 marked the low of the drop which began from the October 11 top at 1587. This first swing up will probably make it into the 1490-95 zone. Support today is at 1445.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market has traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 97.00 while short term support is at 90.00. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - December Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1627 high in December silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun.

Google: GOOG has support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to It looks like GOOG will rally to 730.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Uptrend Has Started





Here are four charts which I think have a lot to say about the trend in the stock market indexes.

The first chart is a weekly chart of the cash S&P 500. You can see that today's big rally has moved this week's price range outside the range of last week. If the average close in the upper half of this week's range on Friday I think we shall have an example of a bullish reversal bar.

There are three good reasons to think this bullish reversal bar will mark the start of a rally to new highs.

The first one is illustrated on the second chart above this post. This is a compressed weekly chart of the cash S&P 500. On it I have drawn the price boxes which have controlled the 5 year old bull market. These boxes are 185 points wide. (I last commented on this chart here. )Notice that the most recent drop has ended at the 1/2 division point of the current box and is nearly as big as the July-August drop. So the rally which started yesterday started from what should prove to be strong support in the 1395-1416 range.

The second reason is shown on the third and fourth charts above this post. These show the 5 and the 10 day moving averages (in purple and red respectively) of the daily count of the number of issues which advance each day on the New York Stock Exchange. (I last commented on this indicator here. ) The low early this week was accompanied by bullish divergences in both moving averages which failed to make new lows when the S&P did. A similar divergence shows in the daily count of advancing issues itself. Moreover, the daily count today is the highest in more than two months and this suggests that today is the kick-off day of a big rally.

Finally, sentiment is very bearish; the newspapers and magazines I read are filled with gloomy reports about the US dollar, the sub-prime crisis, the credit crunch, and the collapse in the housing market. If the averages can hold above their August lows as they appear to be doing in the face of such bearish news I think we can fairly conclude that they are headed much higher.

For these reasons I think the S&P 500 is on its way to new bull market highs. The top of the next box is near 1700 and I think the market can reach that level during the next 3 or four months.

Guesstimates on November 28, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I still think I’ll have a chance to buy the e-minis at 1396, probably tomorrow or Friday. Today resistance above the market is at 1443. There are very bullish divergences showing up in the 5 and 10 day moving averages of advancing issues and I think this means that a long lasting low is imminent.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have rallied much more than I expected. Resistance is at 119-12 and support at 116-24 today. I think a break of 7-10 points will start soon. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-20. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 124.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: GOOG has support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to It looks like GOOG will rally to 730.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Guesstimates on November 27, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Today I shall be a buyer of the e-mini’s at 1396 using a 25 point stop. I think the drop from the October 11 top is just about over. There are significant bullish divergences in the daily advances moving averages and at 1395 the drop will be as long as the July-August decline.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have rallied much more than I expected. Resistance is at 118-12 today. I think a break of 7-10 points will start soon. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-20. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 124.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: GOOG reached the 685 level yesterday and support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to It looks like GOOG will rally to 730.

Monday, November 26, 2007

E-mini Update

I was stopped out of my long position at 1421, break even, this afternoon. Tomorrow I plan to be a buyer below the 1400 level but I want to see how the market trades overnight before I select my buy spot.

Guesstimates on November 26, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1421 but I am bringing the stop up to breakeven today. This entry was only 4 points from the low so I plan to stick with this trade for a few days and see what develops. Resistance above the market today is in the 1475-80 range. I think Wednesday’s low ended the break from the October 11 top and that the market is headed for new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The market has reached 116-28 and I think a break of at least 5 points is imminent. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 124.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Guesstimates on November 23, 8:55 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1421 and using a 1392 stop. I still believe that the market will rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance would take at least a couple of months and probably more to complete.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The market has reached 116-28 and I think a break of at least 5 points is imminent. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 148.00 target and I think the euro is very close to a long-lasting top. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 125.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Comment on Comments

If you look carefully you will discover that every time the stock market tanks the number of comments posted to this blog increases sharply. On the other hand, after the market has rallied for a while the number of comments drops close to zero.

Another interesting fact is that as the market drops lower the abusive comments rise to 30-50% of the total; in fact the percentage is larger because I do not post the most abusive ones. I find this "abusive percentage" a wonderful contrary indicator, and on that basis I think the market is due for a very big rally.

I post the abusive comments which are not too extreme because I want everyone to see how ignorant people think near low points: they drive with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear view mirror.

Economy Headed For Recession ?


Here are images of the latest covers of The Economist and Business Week. As you can see both cover stories are about what is presumed by many to be an imminent slide of the US economy into a recession. The usual explanations for this prediction are the credit "crunch" brought about by the sub-prime lending mess coupled with the high price of oil and a dollar that I am constantly being told has nowhere to go but down.

Well, maybe so. But I should point out that this would be the first time in my memory that a recession was announced by cover stories in major magazines before it even started. In fact, I keep reading the major media in search of any positive story about the US economy and I can't find any.

This is a very unusual state of affairs with the major market averages just 6 weeks after and about 10% off their bull market peaks. Generally speaking, the media and the investing public remain quite bullish during the initial leg of a bear market, turning bearish only much later on subsequent drops to new lows.

I think that these covers and the associated bad economic news being highlighted by the media will prove to be false alarms. I think the stock market averages are near or at their lows. I think the bond market is at a temporary high and will drop once economic strength becomes recognized. Finally, I think the US dollar is making a multi-year low near the 75 level in the dollar index and that a dollar bull market is about to start.

E-mini Update

The market dropped to 1418, a point above my limit buy at 1417, but now it is rallying and I don't want to be left behind in this sort of situation. So I am long from 1421 using a 1392 stop.

Guesstimates on November 21, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The market missed my buy price at 1422 by a point yesterday but the subsequent rally has failed to hold so I have to believe the e-minis are headed a bit lower. Today I will be a buyer at 1417 using a 25 point stop. I still believe that the market will rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance would take at least a couple of months and probably more to complete.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The market has reached 116-28 and I think a break of at least 5 points is imminent. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 148.00 target and I think the euro is very close to a long-lasting top. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has rallied to a new high, contrary to my expectation. This morning it has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

E-minis

I have entered an order to buy the E-minis at 1421 using a 25 point stop.

Guesstimates on November 20, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: At the moment there is no sign that the drop from the October top is over, but there is good support near 1420 and I think the decline will end near there. I have no open orders because the market is 30 points from my buy level. I might enter an order later in the day but I’ll tell you if I do. I still believe that the market will rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance would take at least a couple of months and probably more to complete.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have been much stronger than I expected as the stock market has been weaker than I expected. The market will probably rally to 116-28 but after that I will be looking for a break of at least 5 points. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: The market is getting close to the 148.00 target and I think that will be it for the euro. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: I think crude has begun a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 96.00. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level which is the front month high reached in 1980. Support is at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level. Support is at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.

Monday, November 19, 2007

E-mini early afternoon update

The market only managed a rally to 1445 after I was stopped out of my long position. This doesn't show much support so I think we will bounce briefly from 1430 but that a much more important and lasting low will develop near 1420.

E-mini Update

My stop at 1438 was filled a short while ago. The fact that the market dropped below 1440 means that it is headed still lower. Resistance right now is in the 1445-50 range and I expect to be a buyer again near 1430. At the moment I have no orders in because I first want to see whether or not this drop accelerates downward.

Guesstimates on November 19, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Still long the e-minis from 1463 and still using a 1438 stop. Since the market has traded sideways for several days now I think that an rally will carry above the 1500 level so I have no profit taking target for the moment. I still think that Tuesday’s low at 1437 in the e-minis will hold and that the market is headed for 1600 by year end.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds now have resistance at 115-20 but I still think that the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 112-16 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The market will probably rally to 148.00 but I think that will be it for the euro. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: I think crude has begun a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 96.00. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level which is the front month high reached in 1980. Support is at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level. Support is at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Guesstimates on November 16, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Still long the e-minis from 1463 and still using a 1438 stop. If the market hits 1485 today I shall sell my long position. I think that Tuesday’s low at 1437 in the e-minis will hold and that the market is headed for 1600 by year end.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds now have resistance at 115-20 but I still think that the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 112-16 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The market will probably rally to 148.50 but I think that will be it for the euro. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: I think crude has begun a substantial drop. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level which is the front month high reached in 1980. Support is at 790.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level. Support is at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 626.