Thursday, January 31, 2008

Guesstimates on January 31, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Since the January 22 low in the futures at 1256 we has seen two completed reactions of about 60 points and I expect the drop from the late afternoon high to be the third one in this sequence. It has covered 54 points so far. I think there is a good chance that the e-minis will make another low in the 1315-1325 zone before heading up into the 1400-20 zone. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: Support is at 43.10 and I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a short at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level.

SLV - March Silver: It looks like silver is bout to move past resistance in the 1660-80 zone and the next upside target is 1830. Support stands at 1500.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Guesstimates on January 30, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The futures are headed up into the 1400-1420 zone before another substantial reaction develops. Even so, I think that sometime in the next couple of weeks we shall see a drop back to the 1300 level or a little lower before a multi-month upmove begins. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce off its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level.

SLV - March Silver: It looks like silver is bout to move past resistance in the 1660-80 zone and the next upside target is 1830. Support stands at 1500.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Guesstimates on January 29, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the futures moved well past resistance at 1342 and this means that the market is headed up into the 1400-1420 zone before another substantial reaction develops. Even so, I think that sometime in the next couple of weeks we shall see a drop back to the 1300 level or a little lower before a multi-month upmove begins. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce off its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Resistance is at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The market moved well past resistance at 915 yesterday so I conclude that it is now headed for 1000. Support now is at the 885 level.

SLV - March Silver: It looks like silver is bout to move past resistance in the 1660-80 zone and the next upside target is 1830. Support stands at 1500.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Guesstimates on January 28, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I don’t think the drop from Friday’s high in the e-minis at 1370.75 is quite over yet. Resistance today above the market is is1342 and I think the futures will take a peek below 1300 before another rally sets in. The next rally should carry the market to or above the 1400 level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s will drop to 42.50 or so before resuming their rally. The next step upward should carry at least to 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce off its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think strong resistance is centered at 915 so another move down towards the last low at 850 is likely. The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market is stalling in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Gushing Gloom

The market events of the past two weeks have sent the media into a frenzy of gloom. The cover immediately below this post is last week's Newsweek cover. It is ostensibly about the political death of the republican party, but the double entendre' is pretty obvious. Newsweek then followed up with this week's cover story "The Road to Recession". I think it is also interesting to note the "between the covers" story which appeared in the December 24 issue of Newsweek, "The Roots of Fear".

Business Week's latest cover story is "Market Reckoning". The cover image is at the bottom of this post but a few of rows up you will see the first page of the cover story printed in the classic panic colors, red and black.

Both Fortune and Time Magazine mentioned the market meltdown on their covers this week, although they were not cover stories. "Can the World Stop the Slide" was the headline question for the Time story while the Fortune headline asks "Will the Cure be worse than the Disease".

Finally, Harper's Magazine has a cover story entitled "The Next Bubble". After discussing the recent bubbles (itself a term of pessimism because bubbles always pop) the story predicts that the next bubble will occur in the alternative energy sector.

My general impression formed over the past five years is that investors have been quick to fear the worst. This pattern is continuing. The level of fear and the unanimity of the emotionally expressed outlook for the economy is remarkable. It reminds me very much of the situation in the fall of 1990. Then the US was preparing for the first Gulf war, crude oil was trading at record highs, the S&L industry had collapsed and one could see lines forming a local banks as depositors rushed to withdraw their money. People feared the Fed would be powerless in these circumstances. The Dow and the S&P had dropped 20% in only 10 weeks. There were a large number of magazine cover stories all expressing pessimism about the economic outlook and the consequences of the war. Yet during the subsequent 9 years the Dow rose from 2300 to 11750.

I think a similar market opportunity is emerging now.















Friday, January 25, 2008

Guesstimates on January 25, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance above the market is still at 1375 and any strength above that level would be very bullish indeed. However, it is still my best guess that sometime during the next week we shall see the e-minis drop about 100 points back down below the 1300 level. After that break I shall start looking for a move to new bull market highs. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level.

QQQ: It looks like the Q’s will rally a little more, say to 46.50 or so before testing the low at 41.60.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce of its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is still t 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes continue strong after the Fed rate cut but the 120 level is resistance. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: Gold made a new high this morning but I still think strong resistance is centered at 915 so another move down towards the last low at 850 is likely. The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market is stalling in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Guesstimates on January 24, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market staged an 80 point rally yesterday afternoon and this looks like a decisive rejection of the 1250 level which now should hold for quite some time. Resistance above the market today is at 1375 and support is at 1315. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level.

QQQ: The initial stage of this rally should encounter resistance near the 45.00 level. Support is still at 41.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce of its 2003 top of 123-03. Support is at 118-12. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes continue strong after the Fed rate cut but the 120 level is resistance. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun. Resistance remains in the 910-20 zone.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Fanning the Flames of Panic


Here are images of the past two days' front pages of The New York Times. I last commented on this subject here.

When a stock market drop is a front page headline in the Times three times in four consecutive weekdays you can be confident that the worst is over. In my 40 years of experience the principal lesson I have learned is that the best opportunities occur when people around you seem to be losing their heads and when the temptation to flee the market is strongest. I believe this market is scraping bottom and will soon embark on an extended rally above the 1600 level.

Today's front page (top image) did bring me a chuckle. The heading "Worries that the Good Times were a Mirage" must have been written by a newbie at the Times. Any regular NYT reader knows that that there were never any "good times" since George Bush was elected president in 2000.

Guesstimates on January 23, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are now trading down 45 points below yesterday’s close. The ideal stopping point for the futures break is the 1230 level. A rally of 100-150 points should be the next development subsequent to a low near that level. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move back above the 1600 level once the low is in place.

QQQQ: Support is now at 41.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably bounce of its 2003 top of 123-03 and then break at least 5 points. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes continue strong after the Fed rate cut but the 120 level is resistance. Weakness below 116-20 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun. Resistance remains in the 910-20 zone.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 550 level is support.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Guesstimates on January 22, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The Fed cut rates 75 basis points this morning and the e-minis rallied up to 1305 before falling back all the way to 1260. I will try to be a buyer somewhere below 1250 but I have no orders in as yet. The most likely sequence of events from here is that the market first rallies about 120 points or so from whatever low it makes today or tomorrow. Then a drop all the way back close to or even below that low. Finally a big rally which I expect to last several months and carry the market above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: Support is at 43.30 and a rally to 48.00 or so is imminent.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has encountered very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support still stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes reached 118-16 this morning but I think that will be it for this rally. Support is at 116-08 and weakness below there will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward but any weakness below 850 will mean that an extended decline has begun. Resistance remains in the 910-20 zone.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 550 level is support.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Crash !!

Here is a long term point and figure chart of the cash S&P 500. All the markets are closed today in the USA but the e-minis did trade on globex this morning until 11:30 am New York time. They will reopen this evening. In Europe massive amounts of selling came into the market and drove the e-minis down to 1256 from their 1325 close on Friday. This brings the drop over the past 6 trading days to about 12%. This kind of decline certainly qualifies as a crash.

Where will it end and what are the prospects for the next 6 months?

In any market situation the first thing to do in developing a prognosis is to look for historical analogies. I think the best analogy for the current situation is the July-October drop in 1998 which carried the cash S&P down from 1188 to 923, a drop of about 22.3%.

I have three basic reasons for liking this analogy.

First, the 1998 drop was a very fast one, just like the current decline. The S&P dropped 22.3% in only 10 weeks. By way of contrast, it took the S&P about 11 months to drop by the same percentage from its 1553 high in 2000.

Secondly, the 1998 drop occurred against the backdrop of great financial uncertainty: the Russian bond default and the Long Term Capital Management meltdown. Today we have the worldwide subprime meltdown, fears of a credit crunch, and fears of a recession.

Finally, 1998 occurred as the "interim crash" segment in James Alphiers phase theory
These segments are generally very fast but relatively brief declines which are part of a world wide panic over some unexpected event. The market's behavior over the past three months fits this description exactly.

If the 1998 analogy is correct, then a drop to the 1224 level in the cash S&P would be the expectation for this decline. On the chart you see above I have pointed out two other indications of support near that general level. The bottom of the second 170 point box down from the 1576 high stands at 1236. The 2 x 1 trendline rising from the 770 in 2002 now stands at 1190 and rises at the rate of 10 points every two columns.

These factors make it likely that the drop from the October 11 top at 1576 is nearly over. A typical sequence would be a quick rally of 100-130 points from this morning's low, followed by a drop which will end somewhere in the 1200-1260 zone. After that final leg down I shall be looking for a new bull market to begin. If the 1998 analogy holds, it will take only a few months to move above the 1576 high. On the other hand, the move up from the 1998 low lasted only 17 months. A similar rally from the upcoming lows would produce a market top in 2009, just about the time we would be looking for the end of the Alphier phase and the top of the 4 year cycle.

Friday, January 18, 2008

New York Times: "STOCK PLUNGE"

Here is an image of this morning's New York Times. It tells us that Bernanke's reassurances failed to halt the "stock plunge". A little later in the story we learn that the decline so far in 2008 has been a "stomach churning" 9%. Then we discover that "investors on Wall Street remained in a black mood as data showed that the housing debacle was getting worse and beginning to bring down the rest of the economy".

The more emotion-ladened words there are in a news story or headline the more likely it is that the story reflects a solid consensus of opinion. In this case I think this Times headline is telling us that stocks are scraping bottom and that a sustained advance is about to start.

Guesstimates on January 18, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: My 1340 stop was hit yesterday but I think the market is on the verge of a 100+ point rally, so I shall be a buyer today at 1341, again using a 25 point stop. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 45.30 and from there I think the market will embark on a rally to new bull market highs.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached the 120 level and will encounter very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support still stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Market has reached resistance at 116-16 and while it may take a peek above 117-00 briefly I think the big move up is essentially over. Support is at 114-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has bounced off of resistance in the 910-20 zone and support stands at 865.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 600 level is support.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

E-mini Update

Today I am long from 1365 in the March e-mini futures and still working at 1340 stop. I will get out at 4:00 pm New York time if the market is then trading below 1360.

Guesstimates on January 17, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Today I will be a buyer during regular hours at 1365 or better using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 45.30 and from there I think the market will embark on a rally to new bull market highs.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached the 120 level and will encounter very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support still stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Market has reached resistance at 116-16 and while it may take a peek above 117-00 briefly I think the big move up is essentially over. Support is at 114-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has bounced off of resistance in the 910-20 zone and support stands at 865.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. The market has stalled in the 1660-80 zone and soon should start a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Guesstimates on January 16, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got stopped out at 1396 yesterday and today I will be a buyer at 1365 using a 25 point stop initially. I think this market is making a very important low and is about to rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 45.30 and from there I think the market will embark on a rally to new bull market highs.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached the 120 level and will encounter very strong resistance in the 121-122 zone. Support stands at 117-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Market has reached resistance at 116-16 and while it may take a peek above 117-00 briefly I think the big move up is essentially over. Support is at 114-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market closed below 92.00 yesterday so I conclude that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has rallied into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance. Support stands at 865.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I think the market will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. Support stands at 625.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Guesstimates on January 15, 9:05 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and am working a 1396 stop. Should the stop get hit I will be looking for a drop into the 1365-75 zone and would expect to be a buyer there. Support today is in the 1400-1410 zone. I think the next step up will bring the futures into the 1450-60 range.

QQQQ: I think the odds are good that the Q’s are headed up to 51.00 and eventually much higher than that.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: A close below 92.00 would mean that the market is headed much lower. Meantime I shall still be looking for a move to 102.50. Looking further ahead I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. The market has rallied into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I think the market will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Stock Market Forecast for 2008

2008 STOCK MARKET FORECAST

Summary

The first half of 2008 will prove to be a very bullish period and that the second half of the year will be flat or bearish.

Cycle Evidence

The last four year cycle low that is easily visible in the averages occurred in October 2002. I think it is likely that that same cycle established another low during the June-July 2006 time frame. The magnitude of the 2000-2002 drop suggested at the time that longer term cycles also bottomed in 2002 and these are still headed upward as this is written. This would account for the very modest effect the downside phase of the 4 year cycle had in 2006. I should point out, however, that the sentiment index of the American Association of Individual Investors showed more bearish sentiment at the June 2006 low than at any time since the 2003 low. I ascribe this to the negative influence of the 4 year cycle which was bottoming then.

I also think that there is an out-of -phase 3 year cycle pattern developing. The lows have been in October 1998, September 2001, October 2004 and there is probably one developing as this is being written. This 3 year cycle was last prominent during the 1980’s.

The 3 year cycle lows during the 1978-1990 period occurred in March 1978, October 1981, July 1984, October 1987, and October 1990. After that the 3 year cycle disappeared until the 1998-2001 beat developed.

It is worth noting the pattern of the 20 year cycle in this connection. The S&P 500 established a bull market top in November 1980 which I take to correspond to the August 31, 2000 top in the S&P 500. This latter top was lower than the March 2000 top by about 2 %. The drop from the November 1980 top made a temporary low in early October 1981 and a slightly lower final low in August 1982. I take these to correspond to the September 2001 and October 2002 lows. The market went up to make a top in August 1987 which I take to correspond to the October 2007 top. The break from the August 1987 top lasted about 7 weeks on a print basis and about 3 ½ months on a closing basis. I think the corresponding drop from the October 2007 top is bottoming in January 2008.

If the market were to continue following the 1980-1990 pattern it should remain in an essentially bullish mode until the fall of 2009.

The 40 year cycle predicted an intermediate term top for September 2007 and predicts an intermediate term low for March 2008. Since the corrective phase in 2007 can reasonably be said to have started in July 2007 rather than in September, the corresponding low would be in January 2008. The March 1968 low was followed by a 9 month advance to a bull market top in December 1968. This cycle would at least predict a bullish first half of 2008.

The 60 year cycle would have predicted tops in July and October 2007, predicts a low for March 2008, and an important top for June 2008. This would be followed by a drop of about 12 months.

The evidence of the 3, 4, 20, 40, and 60 year cycles points to a bullish 2008, but the strongest indications are for a bullish first half.

Lindsay’s Long Sequence

Among his timing methods George Lindsay had a theory of a 20 year long stock market pattern that he called “the long sequence”. This sequence attempts to identify the general pattern and timing of bull and bear markets during a period that lasts about 17-21 years starting from an important low. The last long sequence Lindsay had identified before his death started at the 1970 low. The fact that the 1974 low was slightly lower he regarded as an aberration.

The average pattern of the long sequence is a generally rising market for about 16 years and 5 months followed by a declining period of about 3 years. Each of these periods is broken up into several of Lindsay’s basic advances and declines: the 16 year 5 month period would ideally see 5 basic advances separated by 4 basic declines. The 3 year declining period would see two basic declines separated by a basic advance.

The long sequence which Lindsay believed started at the May 1970 low would ideally made its top in October 1986 and its subsequent low in October 1989. This particular example stretched out about a year longer than average, a fact that was easily detectable as it progressed.

The next long sequence started at the October 1990 low. The long sequence top was ideally scheduled for March 2007. However at the very least it was delayed until October 2007 and I am guessing it will be delayed even more (see below). However, shorter term timing considerations aside, Lindsay’s long sequence certainly is telling us that the bull run which began from the 2002 low is almost complete. This long sequence should end with a very important bear market low in 2010 which will begin the next long sequence.

James Alphier’s Phase Theory

In 1980 James Alphier, a very talented market analyst and money manager, presented his “phase theory” of stock market movements to the annual meeting of the Contrary Opinion Forum (which is still run by James Fraser of Fraser Management). Alphier’s theory was that about half of all the fluctuations in the market averages since 1789 can be divided into phases of about 9 years in length. Each of Alphier’s phases is a powerful rise in prices which begins from what Alphier called a “despondent” low of a bear market, a time when extreme pessimism prevails.

The first segment of a 9 year phase begins from the despondent bear market low. This is a bull market which typically averages 2 years in length. It is then followed by the second segment, a minor bear market. The third segment of a phase is a second two year surge in prices encompassing another clearly defined bull market. Occasionally the top of this third segment is the top of the entire phase, but this is not usual. This third segment is followed by a fourth segment, what Alphier called “the interim crash”. The interim crash segment is generally precipitated by some historic event. Panic often develops but the interim crash segment is generally short lived and lasts only a few months. The final segment of Alphier’s phase is a classic, speculative rise to a top accompanied by general euphoria.

Both the 1982-90 and the 1990-2000 periods were very good examples of Alphier Phases. The interim crash of the 1982-90 period occurred in 1987, while the interim crash of the 1990-2000 period developed in 1998.

I suspect that another Alphier Phase started in 2002 which was certainly a despondent low. The first segment ended at the February-March 2004 highs. The minor bear market could then be taken as lasting until the August-October 2004 lows or alternatively until the October 2005 low. In any case the third segment of the phase carried the averages upward through 2006 and the first half of 2007. I think the July 2007 top began the “interim crash” segment of the current Alphier Phase. There has certainly been an event of some historical importance to act as a trigger, namely the sub-prime meltdown in the USA which has had world-side consequences. Since “interim crash” segments generally last only a few months I think this current one is about over.

I think the final rise to the high of the current Alphier Phase should soon start if it isn’t already underway. Once it is complete a longer lived bear market should start. If this is indeed an Alphier Phase then I would not expect a top until 2009.

Linday’s Basic Advances and Declines

The bull market which began from the October 2002 lows has seen the development of two consecutive basic advances separated by a pair of shallow basic declines. This is an unusual situation which has made this part of Lindsay’s theory difficult to apply. Here is my best guess of the market’s current position according to this theory.

The first basic advance of the bull market started on October 10, 2002 in the Dow and ended on February 19, 2004. This advance lasted 497 days and was subnormal in length. According to Lindsay’s theory of alternation this implies that the next basic advance would be either long or extended.

The subsequent basic decline lasted 249 days and ended on October 25, 2004. According to Lindsay’s theory, once a basic decline ends a basic advance must begin. I think the basic advance began on October 25, 2004 and ended on July 16, 2007. It was an extended basic advance and lasted 963 days. This is in accord with Lindsay’s theory of alternation.

Note that there is an obvious sideways movement on the weekly chart of the Dow you see above. This sideways movement began in February 2004 and lasted until October 2005, a period of 20 months. This is an unusually long sideways movement; most last no more than 11 months. Lindsay warned that if the stock market rallies from a sideways movement lasting 11 months would probably crash after the subsequent basic advance is complete. In this case I think this basic advance began from the October 13, 2005 low. If it lasts 994 days, the maximum duration of an extended basic advance, it would end on July 3, 2008.

I should point out that this basic advance would have to last at least 765 days according to Lindsay’s theory because the length of the preceding basic advance was subnormal . This means that the October 2007 could not have been the top of the advance because it would then have been too short to qualify as a long or extended basic advance.

The other point to be made is that after an extended basic advance the market averages do not typically begin a bear market. Usually there is a sideways period or the development of an extended “right shoulder” following the end of the basic advance. During this subsequent sideways period or right shoulder prices often rally above the high of the basic advance . This observation applies both to the extended basic advance which ended on July 16, 2007 and the one projected to end in 2008.

Three Peaks and a Domed House

I shall have more to say on this topic elsewhere. Suffice to say that I think the Dow has developed major three peaks formation with points 3, 5, and 7 labeled on the chart you see above this post. Point 3 occurred on February 22, and Point 7 on October 11, a span of almost 8 months. This qualifies this three peaks as a major formation. Since such formations develop within a basic advance this is more evidence that the basic advance which began from the October 13, 2005 low is not over. Moreover, once point 14 develops it will project the top of the domed house (which may well be the bull market top) for July-August 2008.

Guesstimates on January 14, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have working a 1396 stop. There was some glitch on Globex this morning at 2:01am New York time that resulted in ES prints all the way down to 1360. The exchange has since cancelled all trades below 1398 so I am still long. Support today is in the 1400-1410 zone. I think the next step up will bring the futures into the 1450-60 range. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.

QQQQ: I think the odds are good that the Q’s are headed up to 51.00 and eventually much higher than that.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: A close below 92.00 would mean that the market is headed much lower. Meantime I shall still be looking for a move to 102.50. Looking further ahead I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. Support is at 850. I think the market will rally into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I now think the market will take a peek above its 1644 high but will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

Early E-mini Note

I have been informed by my electronic brokerage firm that bizzare trades occurred in the e-mini's as well as other index futures between 2:01am and 2:05am New York time this morning. There were a few "prints" in the e-minis all the way down to 1360 but a minute later the market was above 1400. The exchange has canceled trades in the e-minis which occurred below 1398 so I am still long and using a 1396 stop.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Guesstimates on January 11, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have brought my stop up to 1396. Support today is in the 1400-1410 zone. I think the next step up will bring the futures into the 1450-60 range. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.

QQQQ: I think the odds are good that the Q’s are headed up to 51.00 and eventually much higher than that.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 105.00-106.00 zone.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude should hit 102.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The short term trend is still upward. Support is at 850. I think the market will rally into the 910-20 zone which is very strong resistance.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I now think the market will take a peek above its 1644 high but will stall in the 1660-80 zone and then have a big break.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

E-mini Update

I just raised my stop to 1396 and will work this overnight too.

Guesstimates on January 10, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1391 and have brought my stop up to 1383 and am working it as I write this. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is underway.

QQQQ: I think the odds are good that the Q’s are headed up to 51.00 and eventually much higher than that.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I now longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 106.00 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude should hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures hit 894 and the short term trend is still upward. Support is at 850. I think the market has a good shot at the 910 level.

SLV - March Silver: Support stands at 1500. I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold.

Google: GOOG reached 630 support late yesterday. I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

E-mini Update

My buy orders were filled at 1391 in the March e-minis. Right now I am working a 1366 stop.

If today at 3:55 pm New York time the e-minis are trading at 1381 or lower I shall sell my longs and cancel my stop. Otherwise I will continue working the stop overnight.

Guesstimates on January 9, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer today in the March e-minis at 1391 again using a 25 point stop. The positive divergences I see in the advancing issues numbers are telling me that a big advance is about to start. The spiders have dropped below 139 and I think are about to start a rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for the 46.00 level.

TLT - March Bonds: I am looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I now longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 106.00 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude should hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures hit 894 late yesterday afternoon and the short term trend is still upward. Support is at 860. I think the market has a good shot at the 910 level.

SLV - March Silver: Silver breeched the 1570 resistance level yesterday afternoon. Support stands at 1500. I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold.

Google: GOOG nearly reached 630 support late yesterday. I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Guesstimates on January 8, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the S&P futures and the Spiders took out the late November low. I think the Spiders will drop into the 136-139 range before the market can start a rally to new bull market highs. Resistance in the March futures still stands near the 1450 level. After the market rallies for a day I shall be looking for a chance to go short.

QQQQ: The Q’s broke their November lows Friday and are headed for the 46.00 level.

TLT - March Bonds: I have changed my mind about the short run direction of this market and am now looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I have changed my mind about the short term direction of the euro and now think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I now longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 106.00 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude should soon hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures hit 879 this morning and I think this will produce a temporary stall. Support is at 850 but the short term trend is still upward. I think the market has a good shot at the 910 level.

SLV - March Silver: Silver is getting close to the 1570 resistance level and I think a stall there is likely. Support stands at 1500. I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold.

Google: GOOG is headed for 630. Once that level is reached a move to new bull market highs should begin.

Monday, January 07, 2008

Advancing Issues


Here are two charts showing the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange (black line) and the 5 day (purple line) and the 10 day (red line) moving averages of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.

This morning the cash S&P 500 index took out its November 26 low at 1406 and I think it is likely to drop into the 1360-90 range before this decline ends. I want to bring your attention to the bullish divergences which are currently visible in the two charts above this post. Note that the 5 day moving average of the advancing issues count is still above the levels of its mid-November low as well as above the level of its mid-December low. The same is true of the 10 day moving average which shows an even more pronounced divergence.

Divergences such as these are not characteristic of a market in the midst of a massive bear market decline which has much further to go. Instead they suggest to me that the drop from the December 11 top is the last phase of a reaction in a bull market which has lasted 6 months so far and which I think is very close to its end. Just to jog memories recall that the 2004 bull market reaction lasted 5 months in the S&P and 8 months in the Dow Jones Industrial average.

Once the cash S&P reaches the 1360-90 zone I think we shall see the market put in an important low which will be followed by a move in the cash index above the 1600 level.

Guesstimates on January 7, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s action means that the Spiders and cash S&P will take out their late November lows. I think the Spiders will drop into the 136-139 range before the market can start a rally to new bull market highs. Resistance in the March futures stands near the 1450 level. After the market rallies for a day I shall be looking for a chance to go short.

QQQQ: The Q’s broke their November lows Friday and are headed for the 46.00 level.

TLT - March Bonds: I have changed my mind about the short run direction of this market and am now looking for a move above the 120 level. Support stands at 116-16. TLT is headed for 98.50.

March 10 Year Notes: Headed for 116-16. Support is at 113-20.

Euro-US Dollar: I have changed my mind about the short term direction of the euro and now think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I now longer think that 108.20 support will hold but I do think the market will stage a very big rally from the 106.00 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude closed over the 97.70 level Thursday so it should soon hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures nearly reached 873 and I think the market will take a peek above that level before starting an extended drop.

SLV - March Silver: I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 630. Once that level is reached a move to new bull market highs should begin.

Friday, January 04, 2008

E-mini and Cash S&P Update

This morning I bought e-minis at 1437 but a little while ago got stopped out at 1422.

Today's action is, at least in the short run, bearish. I had expected the market to dip briefly to 1435 or so in the e-minis but then rally strong by today's close well above the December 18 low at 1446. Instead, we have seen a wide range down day on the breakout below 1446. This tells me that the cash S&P should continue down to 1390 or so which would put the e-minis near 1400. A drop to 1390 would make the drop from the October top about as long as the drop from the July top to the August low.

There is an outside chance that we will see a bigger drop to 1360 in the cash S&P ( 1370 in the e-minis) which would be a temporary break below the August low at 1370 cash. However I think any such break down will prove to be temporary.

Despite all the bearish action and sentiment we have seen over the past few months I am still convinced that the market will rally to new bull market highs by the end of the first quarter of 2008.

Guesstimates on January 4, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I will be a buyer of the e-minis at 1537 or lower after regular hours trading begins at 9:30 New York time. (Added at 11:25 am New York time: as a few of you have pointed out, I meant to say 1437, not 1537) I will use a stop 15 points below my entry price. I think the market will soon begin a move to new highs for the bull market. Resistance today is still at 1470 in the futures.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level. Support stands at 49.75

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 118-28. I think that the 119-12 high will hold and that the market will drop to 110 or a bit lower over the coming months. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 115-08. I think the notes will soon start a drop of at least 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has dropped further than I expected but I suspect this morning’s low at 108.20 or so will hold and that the market will begin a move to 117.00 and higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude closed over the 97.70 level yesterday so it should soon hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures nearly reached 873 yesterday and I think the market will take a peek above that level before starting an extended drop.

SLV - March Silver: I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.Support is at 675.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Three Peaks and a Domed House Revisited

A couple of months ago I discussed what I thought were valid mini and minor examples of George Linday's three peaks and a domed house formation.

The depth of the October-November drop in my opinion invalidates both those formations. Moreover, while there are potential major formations shaping up in the Dow and the S&P, I don't yet have enough confidence in either to say more about that situation just yet.

However I think the weekly bar chart of the Russell 2000 ETF you see above this post is worth attention. There is a very clearly define, major three peaks visible which developed during the February-October 2007 time frame and the October-November drop is a clearly visible separating decline which I believe ended at point 10.

The low which I think will form this week or early next should then be point 14. In Linday's theory the normal expectation is for point 25 to develop about 7 months and 10 days after point 14. In this case the time measurement would predict a market top for mid-July, 2008.

Guesstimates on January 3, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Downside targets are 1435 for the March futures and 142.50 for the Spiders. Once these levels are reached I think the market will begin a move to new highs for the bull market. Resistance today is at 1470 in the futures.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level. Support stands at 49.75

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 118-28. I think that the 119-12 high will hold and that the market will drop to 110 or a bit lower over the coming months. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 115-08. I think the notes will soon start a drop of at least 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has dropped further than I expected but I suspect this morning’s low at 108.20 or so will hold and that the market will begin a move to 117.00 and higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude closed over the 97.70 level yesterday so it should soon hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: The futures nearly reached 873 this morning and I think they will take a peek above that level before starting an extended drop.

SLV - March Silver: I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.Support is at 675.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Cash S&P 500 and E-minis


I was stopped out of my long position in the e-minis at 1461. I have been expecting the market to embark upon a sustained uptrend but instead we have had wide fluctuations within a trading range. The fact that we are seeing even more weakness today after a two day drop means that the 1498 high on December 27 ( at 1511 in the e-minis) was a genuine lower top and after lower tops develop one generally should expect lower lows.

So at this juncture I think the drop will carry the cash down to 1425 or so and the e-minis to 1435. A low at these levels would mark the end of a three stage drop from the December 11 top and should set the stage for a move up to new bull market highs.

Guesstimates on January 2, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and still using a 1461 stop. I think the next significant move from here will be upward to the next short term target which I have lowered to 1532. I think we shall see the futures trade above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. I now think the yen will drop to 110.40 before finding support.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has traded over 96.50 several times during the past few days but I don’t think we shall see a close above the 97.70 level. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.Support is at 675.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Stock Market Posts in 2008

Here is a list of links to the stock market related posts I made in 2008. They appear in reverse chronological order.

DECEMBER

Out - December 31
Long - December 31
Out - December 30
Added - December 30
Long - December 30
Up - December 19
Down to 830 - December 18
Out - December 18
Long - December 18
A day of rest - December 17
Covered at 901.50 - December 17
Short - December 17
Out - December 17
Holding Overnight - December 16
Added One Unit at 888.50 - December 16
Long - December 16
Very Bullish Action - December 12
Down - December 11
What Can't Go Down Must Go Up - December 11
Sold One Unit at 897.00 - December 8
Added One Unit 906.25 - December 8
Long - December 8
Move Above 850 resistance - December 5
Out - December 5
Short Again - December 5
The Employment Number - December 5
Out - December 5
Added Another Short Unit - December 5
Short - December 5
Covered - December 4
Out at 860.50 and short there - December 4
Out one unit at 865.75 - December 4
Added - December 4
Rally Boxes - December 4
Long - December 4
Out - December 3
Added - December 3
Long - December 3
Out - December 2
Covered One - December 2
Added - December 2
Short - December 2
Down to 760-70 - December 1
Out - December 1
Long - December 1

NOVEMBER

Out - November 26
Long - November 26
Out - November 25
Added - November 25
Long Again - November 25
Out - November 25
Added - November 25
Long Again - November 25
Out - November 25
Long - November 25
Out - November 24
Added - November 24
Long Again - November 24
Out - November 24
Long - November 24
A Look Back at 1981 - November 20
U-turn Ahead - November 20
Out - November 20
Added - November 20
Long Again - November 20
Out - November 20
Added - November 20
Long - November 20
Up - November 20
Looking for 775 - November 19
Bullish Action - November 18
Out - November 18
Long - November 18
Day's trend is now up - November 18
Going Down - November 17
Out - November 17
Long - November 17
Out - November 17
Short - November 17
Out - November 17
Long - November 17
Out - November 14
Added - November 14
Long - November 14
Shakeout Complete - November 13
Down to 805 - November 13
Down to 875 - November 10
Out - November 10
Long - November 10
Still No Support - November 6
Out - November 5
Long - November 5
Out - November 3
Back In - November 3
Out - November 3
Long - November 3

OCTOBER

Out - October 31
Added Again - October 31
Out Half - October 31
Added - October 31
Long - October 31
Out - October 30
Long - October 30
Out - October 29
Short - October 29
Out - October 29
Added - October 29
Long Again - October 29
Out - October 29
Added - October 29
Long - October 29
Upside Breakout - October 28
Down to 800-810 - October 28
Out - October 27
Added - October 27
Long - October 27
Hmm... - October 21
Out - October 21
Added - October 21
Short - October 21
Down - October 21
Out - October 21
Added - October 21
Long - October 21
An Encouraging Day - October 20
Out Again - October 20
Short Again - October 20
Out - October 20
Short - October 20
Out - October 17
Long Again - October 17
Out - October 17
Added - October 17
Long - October 17
Out - October 16
Long Yet Again - October 16
Out - October 16
Out Add - October 16
Added - October 16
Long Again - October 16
Out - October 16
Long - October 16
Covered - October 14
Added - October 14
Short - October 14
Long Yet Again - October 10
Out - October 10
Out of Add- October 10
Added - October 10
Long Again - October 10
Out - October 10
Long - October 10
Panic Volatility - October 8
Long - October 7
Rally - October 6
Out Again - October 6
Long Again - October 6
Out - October 6
Long - October 6
E-mini Update - October 3
Out - October 3
Added Second Unit - October 3
Long - October 3
Out - October 2
Long - October 2
Out - October 1
Long - October 1


SEPTEMBER

Advancing Issues - September 29
Short - September 26
Out - September 25
A Look Ahead - September 25
Added Second Unit - September 25
Long - September 25
Headed Up - September 25
Headed for 1160 - September 24
Out Then Short - September 24
Added Second Unit - September 24
Long - September 24
Long - September 22
Out - September 18
Long Again - September 18
Out - September 18
Long Second Unit - September 18
Long - September 18
Added - September 17
Long Again - September 17
Flat - September 17
Added Second Unit - September 17
Long - September 17
Volume - September 16
Out! - September 16
Long - September 16
Bullish Divergences - September 16
Day's Low is In - September 16
Who Is Buying - September 15
Long - September 15
E-mini Update - September 15
Covered - September 15
Short - September 15
Added Second Unit - September 12
Back In - September 12
Flat - September 12
Added One Unit - September 12
Long - September 12
Flat - September 11
Stop Loss Procedures - September 11
Reversed Position - September 11
Short - September 11
Up to 1230-32, then ? - September 11
At the Close - Flat - September 10
Bought More - September 10
Long - September 10
Big Volume - Going Up - September 10
Down to 1210 - September 10
What's Next? - September 9
Covered - September 9
Shorted Second Unit - September 9
Fourth Time at 1250 - September 9
Short - September 9
Advancing Issues - September 8
Update - September 8
Flat - September 8
Short - September 8
Up to 1250, Then Down - September 5
What's Ahead - September 4
Covered - September 4
Yikes! - September 4
E-minis - September 4
A Late Decision - September 3
E-minis - September 3
E-mini Update - September 2
E-minis - September 2

AUGUST

E-mini Update - August 29
E-minis - August 29
E-minis - August 27
E-minis - August 25
E-minis - August 20
E-mini Update - August 18
E-minis - August 18
E-mini Update - August 15
E-minis - August 5
E-mini Update - August 1
E-minis - August 1


JULY

E-minis - July 14
E-mini update - July 11

JUNE

E-minis - June 27

MAY

APRIL

Cash S&P - April 2

MARCH

E-mini Update - March 14
Long the E-minis - March 14
Long the E-minis - March 11
Just Bought E-minis - March 6

FEBRUARY

E-mini Afternoon Update
- February 19
E-mini Update - February 19
Raising the Stop - February 12
E-mini Update - February 12
Cash S&P 500 - February 1

JANUARY

Crash !!
- January 21
New York Times: Stock Plunge - January 18
E-mini Update - January 17
Stock Market Forecast for 2008 - January 14
E-mini Update - January 10
E-mini Update - January 9
Advancing Issues - January 7
Cash S&P 500 and E-mini Update - January 4
Cash S&P 500 and E-minis - January 2