Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Holding Overnight
I am going to try to stick with this e-mini trade past today's close. I'll sell my entire position if the market drops to 886 or if it rallies to 934.50.
4 comments:
Anonymous
said...
right on carl this could be a move to 1000 so why sell at 934?
HI CARL i can understand your hesitantcy the market is getting a little stretched up here . a couple things concern me right now and while i think i have been wrong of late here it is . very short term the 5 day trin sum closed at 4.38 today which is somehwat overbought yet not below 4.00 which leaves the market a day or so to peak the 10 day trin hit .85 which is very overbought yet the mkt can lag and move up before loosing momentum , the 20 day occiator on the dow is now readings its 2nd highest overbought reading of the year which the market can also lag and loose momentum before peaking the 10 day advance decline line peaked oct 8th and is now diverging as the mkt runs up . my cycle turn dates end today which implies a down cycle is begining now . the wild card is options and futures expirations which can spike this market much higher and give more extreme averbought readings before reversing to the down side . it is still a bit early to call the bottom in place in my work yet a move much above 9100 that holds will definately begin to change the picture from down to up .i tend to focus more on timing and indicators then price . and right now my work says its time at a minimum for this market to loose steam if not turn back down and the dow should test the 7800-7600 area . if this can begin over the coming days then there will be an increase in the chance of a new low in which case ill label it the bottom of this entire bearish cycle . im keeping my eyes open for what ever the mkt delivers and im long the qqqq and yet still short a few stocks .
4 comments:
right on carl this could be a move to 1000 so why sell at 934?
Carl
Impressive call on this rally.
Congrats on a superb trade thus far!
HI CARL
i can understand your hesitantcy
the market is getting a little stretched up here . a couple things concern me right now and while i think i have been wrong of late here it is . very short term
the 5 day trin sum closed at 4.38 today which is somehwat overbought
yet not below 4.00 which leaves the market a day or so to peak
the 10 day trin hit .85 which is very overbought yet the mkt can lag
and move up before loosing momentum , the 20 day occiator on the dow is now readings its 2nd highest overbought reading of the year which the market can also lag and loose momentum before peaking
the 10 day advance decline line peaked oct 8th and is now diverging as the mkt runs up .
my cycle turn dates end today which implies a down cycle is begining now . the wild card is options and futures expirations which can spike this market much higher and give more extreme averbought readings before reversing to the down side .
it is still a bit early to call the bottom in place in my work
yet a move much above 9100 that
holds will definately begin to
change the picture from down to up .i tend to focus more on timing and indicators then price .
and right now my work says its time at a minimum for this market to loose steam if not turn back down and the dow should test the 7800-7600 area . if this can begin over the coming days then
there will be an increase in the chance of a new low in which case
ill label it the bottom of this
entire bearish cycle .
im keeping my eyes open for what ever the mkt delivers and im long the qqqq and yet still short a few stocks .
Post a Comment