Friday, June 23, 2017

Guesstimates on June 23, 2017



September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES tried to move above the 2433-36 zone yesterday but failed. This makes a drop into the 2412-16 zone likely. The ES will trade above 2500 later this year.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped visibly below its 200 day moving average yesterday. The market is concerned about the deflationary effects of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Should the 10 year yield stay below this moving average I think the US stock market will be vulnerable to a drop of 10-15% because of these balance sheet concerns.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par. The 113-117 zone is long term resistance.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 45 has apparently failed. Downside target is now 36-38.
August Gold:  Next resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
July Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 is nearby but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.
Facebook: Support at 140. Next upside target is 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: I think BABA will have a hard time moving past 145-48 without a 15-20 point drop first. Support is 125
Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Guesstimates on June 22, 2017



September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped back below support in the 2433-36 zone yesterday and has stayed there in overnight trading. This makes a drop into the 2412-20 zone likely. But after that the bull market advance will resume. The ES will trade above 2500 later this year.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped visibly below its 200 day moving average yesterday. The market is concerned about the deflationary effects of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Should the 10 year yield stay below this moving average I think the US stock market will be vulnerable to a drop of 10-15% because of these balance sheet concerns.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par. The 113-117 zone is long term resistance.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 45 has apparently failed. Downside target is now 36-38.
August Gold:  Next resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
July Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 is nearby but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.
Facebook: Support at 140. Next upside target is 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: I think BABA will have a hard time moving past 145-48 without a 15-20 point drop first. Support is 125
Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Guesstimates on June 21, 2017



September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES dropped below support in the 2433-36 zone in overnight trading but has since moved back above it on steadily increasing volume. This makes it likely that the ES is now headed for 2451 and above. The ES will trade above 2500 later this year.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped visibly below its 200 day moving average yesterday. The market is concerned about the deflationary effects of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Should the 10 year yield stay below this moving average I think the US stock market will be vulnerable to a drop of 10-15% because of these balance sheet concerns.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par. The 113-117 zone is long term resistance.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 45 has apparently failed. Downside target is now 36-38.
August Gold:  Next resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
July Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 is nearby but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.
Facebook: Support at 140. Next upside target is 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: I think BABA will have a hard time moving past 145-48 without a 15-20 point drop first. Support is 125
Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.