Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I will be a buyer of the e-minis at 1537 or lower after regular hours trading begins at 9:30
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level. Support stands at 49.75
TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 118-28. I think that the 119-12 high will hold and that the market will drop to 110 or a bit lower over the coming months. TLT is headed for 87.
March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 115-08. I think the notes will soon start a drop of at least 5 points.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has dropped further than I expected but I suspect this morning’s low at 108.20 or so will hold and that the market will begin a move to 117.00 and higher.
XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude closed over the 97.70 level yesterday so it should soon hit 101.50 before an extended drop starts. I think the market will drop to 75 and lower during the coming months. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.
GLD - February Gold: The futures nearly reached 873 yesterday and I think the market will take a peek above that level before starting an extended drop.
SLV - March Silver: I think that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.
Google: GOOG is headed for 760.Support is at 675.
9 comments:
Do you mean 1437 or lower? You said 1537.
"I will be a buyer of the e-minis at 1537 or lower..." I tried pointing out your error to you yesterday, Carl; but you're so arrogant that you can't admit a mistake.
It's NOT 1537.
And your sycophant toadies can't admit that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes either.
Stopped out again then Carl on your inadvised Spiders long? Once you realise we are in a Bear your calls will improve.
i placed short term jan call option on spx when it was at 1426.01 and turning south . so im effectively long calls for a very short term trade . the cycle low is due monday and we should see a strong rally into jan 22 .with a larger risk to the downside im limiting my risk by trading options if 1410 breaks on spx cash
or dow elow 12785 then id say 12200
finally gets tested before we head back to the upside .
im not using any stop as my cycles work is looking for a bottom on monday and the dow is essentially
at its support zone . the proof in the pudding will be tuesdays mkt action .is this point 18 ?? or still point 19 as i have been mentioning for a while now
anonomous joe
"Anonymous said...
'I will be a buyer of the e-minis at 1537 or lower...' I tried pointing out your error to you yesterday, Carl; but you're so arrogant that you can't admit a mistake.
It's NOT 1537.
And your sycophant toadies can't admit that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes either."
Folks:
I think this guy has a serious problem. Yesterday he tried to post a comment which I deleted because it consisted entirely of name calling as per the last paragraph of his comment today. I maintain a policy of deleting any comment which is substantially an ad hominem attack.
People like this are so emotionally committed to the bear side of the market that they no longer are thinking straight (if they ever do at all). This guy gets angry at anyone who disagrees with his views, a sad situation indeed.
I might add that anger at people who disagree with your view of the market is a sure sign that you are participating in group-think.
Thanks to those who pointed out that in this morning's guesstimate I wrote 1537 as my buy price when I meant to write 1437.
"Once these levels are reached I think the market will begin a move to new highs for the bull market."
Is that boilerplate ?
hi carl. i have followed your work now for about 2 months. i love the fact that you are opinionated and not afraid to share those views. however, i am at a loss trying to figure out how you look at the markets within a mathematical framework. i am an institutional fixed income trader who also trades e-minis in a secondary book, and i like to use technical analysis against a fundamental backdrop. is your main determinant "cycle work"? is there somewhere that i can read up on your methodology. thanks.
HEY CARL
anomous joe here
i cant spell sometimes yet my point gets out here. i agree there are many who are blindly bearish
and i will also state there are many who are drunken bullish . so it is part of the game , the name calling and blasting for sake of what ever is worth deleting so hit delete if you think you should as
i think most here will support your ability to do what you see fit . there is a very strong bearish case to be made . but i like you am not convinced yet either that we are in a bear mkt .
the early stages of one very possibly yet in the broad context i still think we have higher highs coming into mid 2010 . monday is where the rubber meets the road in my work cycles wise and we still have a sideways trend into early april . so while im longer term bullish i will be trading both sides which implies being short term bull and bear . my work hinges on timing over price and while i went long as spx broke south from 1426.01 im going to stick to my plan though next week
lastly the 10 day trin ( 10 day moving ave of daily trin ) closed very oversold friday . the dow held support as did the spx and the oex . so the bull has not died just yet dispite the ugliness .
one thing that keeps me open minded and comfortable with in this nightmare is i have been short march put options since mid june . i have un wound many of them and im only now turning bullish .
good luck everyone and carl
dont let those that cant make a constructive bearish case blind you from your own work .
thanks for everything
joe
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