Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Flat

I got out of my long at 1173.00.  I think we either have seen the low of the day or are very close to it so I am thinking in terms of looking for a buy spot.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

With all due respect, the markets are in free fall. Why are you looking for longs. Aren't shorts the higher probability trade today. Love the blog but scratching my head!

Anonymous said...

With gold up $60 there is a lot of panic out there. This market could be on the precipice of a huge fall.

Anonymous said...

the markets are at long-term support here ... if it breaks we are going lower ... but it's just a test, we are due for a nice bounce, maybe up to 1280?

G. Nuikolo

Anonymous said...

I guess Carl's a contrarian.

Anonymous said...

I'll offer up 1165 as support

Rico

Carl Futia said...

Dear 11:42 am:

The reason I am not taking the short side here is that the e-minis are down more than 60 points from their overnight high at 1229.50 and are near yesterday's low. I never sell the low of a trading range when it is this big.

Anonymous said...

I agree with that...So i am just sitting on the sideline for today...i am down too...But just a look at the financial is enough to convince me not to find a bottom for today...GS -23%; Merril -13%, Wachovia -20%...Could have been 1164 for today, but what about tomorrow...?

Balsamo

Anonymous said...

because Carl Futia thinks the economy is GOOD, that's why he looks for longs constantly in a BEARRR market.

most Americans wish him to be right, because no one wants to see Hard Times, but like many optimists he has been wrong trying to pick 'the bottom since the bear started.

America is over the hill in debt, there is too much corruption among those that have been super-enthusiastic about taking your hard earned $ and gamble with it at 40 or even 50-1 leverage (!!!), and then lose it all, and pay themselves super-high salaries in the meantime. Wall Street is getting PURGED of this filth.

If you are a true American, and want to see this country get back on track, you will welcome the change that must happen to get rid of the filth and start with a clean slate, not try to pick a bottom in a corrupt market that is going down, and rightly so.

thanks to the marriage of corrupt finance ppl and smart lawyers, America has been duped. no different than a manufacturer who knowingly creates products filled with carcinogens and sells (and pushes) them on the open market- they call them 'vehicle' or 'products' as well.

see ya at 9500 1st stop- don't worry, we're almost there. PURGE ON

Nic

despite my difference in opinion with Carl Futia, his blog is great and shows the true depth of his intelligence. keep up the great work

Anonymous said...

YMQ8 10600 is the number to watch and perhaps a place to go long...be nimble

also looking for a spike above 36 on the VIX to trigger the buy.

my 2 cents

Rob

Anonymous said...

Severe bear markets take out support levels like a hot knife through butter.

Anonymous said...

Unless you're a big time gambler watch out for the final hour today...it could be really ugly.

Anonymous said...

Hello Carl,

Gann-Line 1 x 8 Down from the 2. Top of 2000 at 1530 is today at 1162,84. I'm long now, with Stop at1160.
Regards from Germany, Jürgen

Anonymous said...

Any takers that we'll close positive today?

Nico

rcks said...

Carl
Something to keep in mind for late today and tomorrow is the sec ruling, that naked short selling has been put into effect, which probably means, leave the banks alone.
We could see a pretty good short covering rally near 3 and into the close.
Like you said yesterday, with this much selling pressure we should be tanking, which IMO points us in the opposite direction.
Good trading to all.

Anonymous said...

hello Carl,

you are great but why don't you keep your stops on ES at 5 points or less? or do you.
thanks
Catherine de Aragon

Anonymous said...

Here is a followup to my bold prediction yesterday. The SEC is going to strictly enforce the no naked short selling rule starting at midnight tonight. That may be a game changer leading to a huge rally tomorrow. The action in the last hour today will tell me if that will happen tomorrow or not. I still think that we are on the verge of a 1000 point single-day drop in the Dow by Friday.

"Doc"

Anonymous said...

Try again to post my comment.

Dow mini futures YMQ8 10600 looks like a good place to go long. VIX spike towards and ideally above 36 can be the leading indicator.

gtty

Rob

Anonymous said...

numbers to think of
spx cash index
.236=964.80 .382=1072.74 .50=1159.98 .618=1247.23

.236=1239.13 .382=1059.37 .50=914.09 .618=768.81 .786=561.97

the 1247 to 1239 has been broken
this leaves us with 1159.98 as support below there is 1072 to 1059
joe

Anonymous said...

correction on dow mini contract to watch...YMZ8 not YMQ8,

good luck everyone who dares to enter long or short here

VIX at 35.55 at this time!

Anonymous said...

Carl,
I think its time you start to looking for that bottle of vintage red wine! I think the bet was that the S&P would fall to 1075.

KJ London

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Updated thoughts on gold? Thanks!

Anonymous said...

I don't think we close +ve today but there is a good chance we close above 1200

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see the PPT make an substantial statement (through their actions) before the end of the week.

Anonymous said...

We should see a 1210 afternoon high with a close somewhere in the 1200-1210 range.

Sam said...

We now have the "spike in comments" indicator signifying that an intermediate term low is in. I'm going to be a buyer today.

Anonymous said...

yes sam; in addition the wine-bet reference is an additional confirmation.
I know for a fact that the highly paid analysts do not use these special indicators.

Solrac
(I bought some spy calls late today.)