Friday, September 26, 2008

Guesstimates on September 26, 2008

Spiders - September S&P  E-mini Futures:  I thought that the e-minis would hold above the 1205 level but so far they have dropped nearly 20 points below there. I think this means that the market is headed for 1160. At that point the trend should turn upward and a move to 1300 should begin. 

QQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 38.50 and then start a move up to 45.00.  

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is now at 149.40. 

Dollar-Yen: Resistance is at 108.50 and I think the market is headed for 98.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Crude now has resistance at 112.00. Next downside target is 75.    

GLD - December Gold: Gold still has resistance at 935, but my guess now is that Thursday’s 925 high marked the end of the rally. I think gold will soon drop to 600. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1390. Next downside target is 900.   

Google: I am not very sure about Google’ technical position. I still think it has a good shot at 375 before it resumes its long term bullish trend.   

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ya, keep doing your IDIOT bulltard call... WE ARE GOING TO BREAK TO LOWER LOW before any bounce higher ok? Even they pass 700B in some sort of form, our economy is going to go into DUMP!

By the way, I'm adding my initial... ALL 'IDIOT' POST WAS DONE BY ME!

F. B.

Anonymous said...

It occurs to me that, if the government is going to “manipulate” the market with $700B in taxpayer funds, well, why not use a cheaper method of manipulation by suspending the rules that require mark-to-market accounting (which is at the root of the collateral issue on complex mortgage-related derivatives)? And/or, why not manipulate the market by temporarily suspending the liquidity requirements (on an emergency basis) that are forcing the selling of these distressed assets? Or both?

Clearly there are reasons not to take the steps I’m suggesting. But it sure would be cheaper than the Big Bailout, and would amount to roughly the same thing. If these assets are indeed worth more than the distressed fire-sale prices at which they are currently trading (which is one of the premises on which the Big Bailout stands, and on which it’s being sold as potentially profitable), then suspending mark-to-market accounting rules would provide similar relief to balance sheets.

Thoughts?
Adam Oliensis

Anonymous said...

I have to disagree with the notion that we are about to break down. If anything today's opening pattern has so many parallels with the past that if repeated suggest we'll see a bullish outside reversal with a close in the mid 1220's. In anycase

I am a small long with a wide stop from 1200

EDS