Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Guesstimates on September 30, 2008

Spiders - September S&P  E-mini Futures:  Judging from this morning’s headlines and the bullish divergences evident in the advancing issues numbers I think that yesterday’s low either ended this drop or is very near the final low point. The market took out the September 18 low at 1136 yesterday on a panic decline but this morning is trading above that level which is a minor bullish indication. It has established a trading range between 1112 and 1166 and I think it will move out of this range on the upside today or tomorrow. 

QQQ: The Q’s will probably act worse than the S&P for a while and eventually drop into the 34-35 zone before a solid low is in place.   

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is now at 149.40. 

Dollar-Yen: Resistance is at 108.50 and I think the market is headed for 98.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Next downside target is 75.   

GLD - December Gold: Gold still has resistance at 935.  I think gold will soon drop to 600. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1390. Next downside target is 900. 

Google: I think Google will make a low near 375 and then begin another multi-year bullish trend. 

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your comments get idiotic everyday... first u had the Q's support at 38.50 and going to 45 and now u have them going down to 33... we can all be Wallstreet gurus with revisions everyday, but NO ONE can call the market!!!

GOOD LUCK EINSTEIN!!!

Anonymous said...

The problem is yesterday was not panic selling, given the size of the decline. I've been trading more than 30 years and have seen my share of panic selling...yesterday was much too orderly. Its pretty obvious lower lows lie in the future.

The spoos are up 24 this morning...I'd much rather see them down that much if I were looking for a good rally attempt.

spf5

Anonymous said...

Yes, the market needs fresh energy and some good reasons before seeing the persistent upward momentum. However, $700B throwing into staled and already over-priced real estates, manipulated by those greedy and ignorant financial institutions, doesn't seem to be the best remedy for the overall economy. Indeed, US government needs to do something, how about spending the $700B in more productive manners, building better infrastructure, creating jobs, promoting innovation, stimulating technology development, improving education, tax breaks for business and individuals .... The role of government is for all not just for a small interest group messed up the financial balance of US and the world.

Anonymous said...

Ya, that's what you keep on saying, and market keep on breaking lower... Gosh, anyone who is IDIOT can do what you do! TA is about to predict the turns, not just keep on calling the low or high. If you want to keep on calling low while market is falling, anyone can do it!!!

F.B.

Anonymous said...

Carl, you will be right one of these months. Come on dude, try to predict turns not bullish bias all the way down since last year.
MJ

Anonymous said...

Carl,

How many times are u gonna show the front cover of a magazine??? U are so out of the loop that its not funny! U have been posting magazine cover for the past 6 months and all u say in ur idiotic posts that this is fear and we are heading higher... U had the S&P hitting new highs all the way down to 1100... We can all do what u do and say this market will turn over the next year or so, but you have been dead wrong! What makes ur predictions any better from CNBC? U should go on that show and they will love you with all the hype and ratings you would give them!!!

You are a MORON with and Ivy League education...