Yet the bond futures and the notes futures are each trading below the high points they reached in March 2008. Gold is not only trading below its 1035 all time high reached earlier this year, but is still below the 925 rally top it put in a couple of weeks ago. Silver is down almost $9 from its mid-year high.
I think these are the early signs that the panic is about to end. These markets are all panic barometers, refuges in times of certainty. Given the current panic situation in world markets I would expect bond, notes, gold, and silver to be at new highs for 2008. But they are not. These dogs aren't barking.
Let's take a look at the stock market from this point of view. The first real panic headlines and magazine covers started to appear in mid-January of 2008. You can view the chronology here on this link to my contrary opinion posts. At the moment the S&P is trading about 8% below its mid-January low. I find this remarkable. If you had told me then that the events we have seen during the intervening eight months would occur I would have predicted that the S&P would be trading near 900 now. But it isn't anywhere close.
Again, that dog hasn't barked. I infer that much higher prices are in store (i.e. a move above the 1600 level) once these panic conditions pass.