I have to conclude that since the August 11 top was below the May top the next low will be below the 1200.75 low of July 15. Right now my best guess would be 1175.
I think this week's action will bring bears out of the woodwork, so I really don't think the downside potential is more than 1175 or so. While 1175 is my best guess right now, I think that it is more likely that this decline end above that level, or even above 1200, than that it ends substantially below 1175.
7 comments:
Today is a good day for astrologers to get some respect: this severe turn of events can't be explained by Wall St pundits but goes with a major planetary signature occurring today through next Monday, and by then the tide will turn. The planets involved are Jupiter trining Sun and Saturn exactly while Jupiter stations and finally goes direct after months of backward apparent motion; Moon and Mars also get into the act. Very big stuff, brings big anomalous move.
sincerely
Catherine d'Aragon
The nature of wave 3 ( and that is what the EW people think it is that has started) is fast and with so few rebounds, a lot of the bears will miss it. I would guess that very few new shorts will be put on here at 1240 or were at 1261 , which means that unless you have had the position from yesterday or the day before (or earlier), you cannot get in. The wave can remain massively oversold for many days/weeks. I would suggest that bulls are more likely to be drawn in and find they are catching a falling knife than new bears coming out.
Catherine
when you day trade, you don't have to worry about planet, moons, or waves...
If you are successful at day trading, great. You are a very rare commodity. Stats from the UK suggest that 93% of day traders lose money which is why spreadbetting is tax-free in the UK. It means that these people who have lost money cannot offset their losses against tax from other things..
good note catherine i think you are correct yet many wont listen .
we are in a down cycle into sept 16th 19th . yet it could end as soon as sept 10th . i tend to veiw todays decline as point 10 on a 60 minute spx chart . that said
the 10 day trin has yet to give an oversold reading above 1.40 so
i do not veiw this mkt as oversold
even after todays decline .
the transports though have more downside which should technically
break slightly below the march lows
and then move back to new all time highs . the oex has its long term support at the 562 price level which is still 9 points away
since the spx is roughly 2 points to 1 oex point i would think the spx holds the 1224-1221 price level
i have been short the qqqq from
47.30 and am holding to as low as 37 . im also looking to go long the spx near present levels .
into the cycle low due sept 16th 19th
as for the 3 peaks domed house pattern im looking at i posted it here carl if your interested
http://www.tradersaffiliates.com/WEEKLY%20UPDATE.htm
good luck
joe
It's total meltdown in Asia tonight.
Eur jpy dropped like a stone 2 figs and snp trading at 1228 immdiately.
Quoted from a previous post:
"It's total meltdown in Asia tonight".
You are exaggerating. Less than a 3% drop as I type this is not a total meltdown.
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