Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Monday, October 06, 2008
Long Again
I just bought one e-mini unit at 1037. I think a big rally is imminent but we may take a brief peek below 1031 first.
13 comments:
Anonymous
said...
you may be right but you say that every 50 points we go lower. how and why could someone you claims to have a Phd make such foolish comments over and over again.
The only way i can agree with you of an imminent rally would be if we close at breakeven or the plus side... That would give us a long tail on todays candle and would signal a rally, but until that happens we are not out of the woods!
Carl, would you like some links for magazine covers? I went surfing today and have lots of them if you want me to send links! Just dont want to overflow you with them... Cheers!
Well, I gotta admire your courage. This market has me scared, I have no idea where we might bottom. Elliott Wave structure of the current wave in progress looks to me like there's at least one more wave down to a new low. 5th waves sometimes fail, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 4th wave might not be complete, so we could see a rally from here before the next move down.
i feel sorry for you--do you think there is only side to the market UP. I think you should stop and think seriously--is there a catalyst for a move up--UK closed almost 10% down and you are buying here--
Carl is 1031 your stop? It looks like we have at least one more day of selling, unless they find reason overnight to bounce this. No targets though. The next logical support on the spx is 960 the support from late 2003. 1060 didn't exactly work and if we do not recover that level by the close tomorrow looks dreadful. JMHO. Good luck with your trades.
its getting UGLY and down right SCARY!!! this marke is very BRUTAL and DANGEROUS... a true saying is "dont try to catch a falling knife"!
its so SCARY and DANGEROUS that no program buying at 10K... Bulls didnt defend 10K, just let it meltdown... when that happens, you know their is BLOOD in the streets!
VIX over 50. Historically very bullish. But languishing near the lows ...lack of any snapback, increases the downside risks. With 1077 on the SPX broken (62% retraement of the '02-'07 rally), the next obvious target I see is 959 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-year rally). only a push back up through 1077 would kill the lower target.
Yes. Managed to get filled long exactly at 1030. Sold one contract at 1037.50 on bounce. Now left with 1 contract long at price of 1035.00. Let's hope it goes up rest of the day.
The major problem as I see it is that too many on the bullish side seem to forget what and who actually moves the markets. We have fund managers liquidating and the economy is in for a drastic shift. Credit and housing fueled the most recent bull market from 2002, tech fueled the bull market til 2000...and what will fuel the next bull market? I said last week that 950 on the S&P is where I am looking to load up the boat long...I have resting orders with my broker. It seems as though Carl has let some of his detractors get under his skin and he is letting pride take over trading decisions. All traders know that the trend is their friend. The risk lies in going against the trend because you must get the direction, timing, and price correct and you have a very small margin of error. Markets correct through either time or price...beware when everyone tries to convince you to buy what they have to sell. There is no reason to buy now.
13 comments:
you may be right but you say that every 50 points we go lower. how and why could someone you claims to have a Phd make such foolish comments over and over again.
I agree with you Carl. But i'm not as courageous as you, so am hoping to be able to buy at 1030.
Carl,
The only way i can agree with you of an imminent rally would be if we close at breakeven or the plus side... That would give us a long tail on todays candle and would signal a rally, but until that happens we are not out of the woods!
Carl, would you like some links for magazine covers? I went surfing today and have lots of them if you want me to send links!
Just dont want to overflow you with them... Cheers!
extrader
Well, I gotta admire your courage. This market has me scared, I have no idea where we might bottom. Elliott Wave structure of the current wave in progress looks to me like there's at least one more wave down to a new low. 5th waves sometimes fail, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 4th wave might not be complete, so we could see a rally from here before the next move down.
Good luck.
Greg
Decided to enter at 1042.25 a few minutes ago. I have doubts about seeing 1031 now.
i feel sorry for you--do you think there is only side to the market UP.
I think you should stop and think seriously--is there a catalyst for a move up--UK closed almost 10% down and you are buying here--
Carl is 1031 your stop?
It looks like we have at least one more day of selling, unless they find reason overnight to bounce this. No targets though. The next logical support on the spx is 960 the support from late 2003.
1060 didn't exactly work and if we do not recover that level by the close tomorrow looks dreadful. JMHO.
Good luck with your trades.
OMG,
its getting UGLY and down right SCARY!!! this marke is very BRUTAL and DANGEROUS... a true saying is "dont try to catch a falling knife"!
its so SCARY and DANGEROUS that no program buying at 10K... Bulls didnt defend 10K, just let it meltdown... when that happens, you know their is BLOOD in the streets!
Look out below!
extrader
VIX over 50. Historically very bullish. But languishing near the lows ...lack of any snapback, increases the downside risks.
With 1077 on the SPX broken (62% retraement of the '02-'07 rally), the next obvious target I see is 959 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-year rally). only a push back up through 1077 would kill the lower target.
Yes. Managed to get filled long exactly at 1030. Sold one contract at 1037.50 on bounce. Now left with 1 contract long at price of 1035.00. Let's hope it goes up rest of the day.
The major problem as I see it is that too many on the bullish side seem to forget what and who actually moves the markets. We have fund managers liquidating and the economy is in for a drastic shift. Credit and housing fueled the most recent bull market from 2002, tech fueled the bull market til 2000...and what will fuel the next bull market? I said last week that 950 on the S&P is where I am looking to load up the boat long...I have resting orders with my broker. It seems as though Carl has let some of his detractors get under his skin and he is letting pride take over trading decisions. All traders know that the trend is their friend. The risk lies in going against the trend because you must get the direction, timing, and price correct and you have a very small margin of error. Markets correct through either time or price...beware when everyone tries to convince you to buy what they have to sell. There is no reason to buy now.
It's taking quite the peak!!!
I am bearish, but when the natives get this restless Carl is usually right in the short run.
Still they could be more restless tommorrow.
Carl, do you have a bottom where you think we will rebound in case you are wrong here? Is it 960?
Good luck to everyone
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