Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Even the Bears Are Scared Now

I do a lot of cruising on the Internet, keeping track of market opinions and conditions. One thing I have noticed is that during the past 24 hours even the bearish commentators are in full panic mode. This is also reflected in the slow pace of comments on this blog.

This is a typical situation near low points.  Even people who have foreseen the debacle are afraid to step in and turn their wisdom into a market position.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

For once I agree with you Carl.

spf5

kleenup2 said...

Morning Carl, looks like the biggest reason to believe that lower prices are in the offing is that even the bears are scared. The most important parts of trading are having a plan, being decisive in executing that plan, and managing the risk that is inherent in the trading business. It appears that the market prognosticator bug is sweeping this blog since even those on the right side of the trade are quick to get off and reverse their position without any reason to do so. My suggestion to you all is to stop trying to be so cute...take your entry, set your stop, set your target, and lock in your profits by scaling out as your targets are met. Trading is so simple that even a computer can do it...so stop trying to impress everyone by making it seem so hard. Earnings expectations are still TOO high.

Anonymous said...

Carl
Sorry to bother you. I dont understand your jpy forcast - you expect further yen strenth? or usd jpy strength.
Best wishes Catherine

Keith Shepard said...

I agree with something in your statement Carl, but I'm not sure what just yet.

Howard Bernstein said...

I think that is because we haven't seen events unfold like this in our lifetime, so even the permabears who predicted this debacle don't know what to do. Only people who were around in 1929-1932 would be able to speak rationally on the subject and very few are still alive.

Anonymous said...

bought one YMZ8 9611

bought SSO 36.5..QLD 36.4...and DDM 39.40

no daytrade, it's a swing trade, unless we see a 800 point spike up and if it tanks hard, i'll bite the bullit.

thaks for allowing me to post Carl,

rob

Anonymous said...

Carl: you are a good man, but you have totally missed this latest BEAR RAID! ... all throughout, you have called for an 'imminent' rally ... we have done nothing but hit new lows ... even today.

Eternal bull?

Just remember the Japanese market.

Rick B.

Anonymous said...

Sure bears are panicking, no one wants a full blown depression! But I don't know if bears panicking will change what destine to happen.

extrader said...

Carl has missed this down move along with others, myself included, but one thing is for sure, this market will reverse one day, and a rally will stick...

If you are short, dont forget your stops because the rally will be vicious. It will be man against machine and you will not have time to put an order in because it will be too fast!!!

And since no rally has sticked with all these headlines, Carl may be right that we get a "no news" rally and people are left in the dust! Its ironic that this market has crashed on bad fundamentals, ignoring technicals and doesnt rally on good fundamentals, eventhough for the most part technicals move markets!

JMHO

ex

ex

Anonymous said...

Carl, I'm not sure I follow you with this statement. Maybe you're over analysing sentiment again. I don't know. Better just to stick with technicals.

Lindsay Wagner

kleenup2 said...

I can't understand exactly what technicals that some of you are following to make you believe that higher prices have been imminent. The VIX at extremes, Oversold oscillators, fib lines etc are not buy signals...they signal that stops should be tightened and that profits should be locked in if you are short. If you gonna play counter trend you must be nimble and disciplined. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. The technicals have been signaling lower prices all year...the fundamentals have just started to catch up. Seems to me the real fear that is being expressed is by those afraid that they will miss getting in at the bottom of the next bull run.

Anonymous said...

Of course, bears are scared...everybody should...THIS IS BAD MARKET, AND BAD MARKETS HURT EVERYBODY...

Of COURSE, markets are oversold...Just realize that those last 6 sessions have erased the rallye that occured between August 2003 and january 2005 !

In France, the CAC lost 16% in 2 days, Japan is down 20% in two days, Iceland is almost bankrupt, Dax is close to the 5000 levels (it comes from 8400)...

THIS IS NOT NORMAL MARKET, we can all throw our technicals analysis in the bin...

Unless you watch improvement in the LIBOR and EURIBOR Rates...forget any real rallies...we don't have the short to cover this time...If only we had them, we would have rebounded huge by now... Now i just imagine the small peoples that are still invested in this market through funds, calling up their broker to SELL...

So yes, maybe this is finally the bottom (we're are back at 2003 levels), but only maybe...

Good luck to all
Balsamo