Still, I have survived the day with a modest profit, and I think a period of more normal markets will slowly develop over the coming weeks.
As I said earlier, I think we shall see the S&P at 1060 or so within a few days.
Friday, October 10, 2008
A Day for the History Books
I have NEVER see such big, fast intraday movements in the market averages. Maybe they occurred in 1929, but not since then and I have been watching since 1966. Today we saw four separate moves, two down and two up, each of between 80-100 S&P points. These are moves, each of about 10%. Yikes!
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18 comments:
Carl,
Check out this guy: xtrends.blogspot.com.
He's got an edge.
Carl
I also wanted to add that I had been constantly short since September 2007 - ie shortly prior to the eventual top but through some early pain as the position moved against me for a number of weeks. -
so I see 1500 - 1070 as the part I got and I missed 1070 to 840 (?)
I trade in points as I use a spreadbetting system so I see that I achieved approximately 66% of the down move.(Not calculated) I actually made more than that as I did not carry a whole 100% position on the move up to the 1400's and resold more than 100% around that point.
I was not following this blog until 3 or 4 months ago but went back and I believe you were bullish in September as well.
Have a good weekend.
Catherine
I beg to differ.
Normal market doesn't look to return for a while...
I would lean toward extreme whipsaw.
Just my 2 cents, sir.
"I have NEVER see such big, fast intraday movements in the market averages. Maybe they occurred in 1929..."
Funniest thing you have EVER said, Carl. The TOTAL volume of Black Tuesday was 16 million shares (a record that stood for nearly forty years). They had no computers, no algorithmic trading, and prices were written manually on blackboards. The ticker ran until 19:45 trying to catch up with the "heavy trading."
The day for the history books is 13 October, both 2007 and 2008,
Katie Rose
Carl,
I think you traded very well today especially during the last fake-out that left you exasperated. I'm just curious, did you leave your desk during the last run-up or were you just in awe of the movement of the day and decided to sit it out instead?
-Chrys
Carl,
The three-week period preceding the 1987 crash had similar wide intra-day swings in the major averages.
I hope you took advantage of my prediction earlier today when I posted that the rally would begin within thirty minutes (the DJIA was down appx. 550 at that time). We are not out of the woods yet and a 1000 point down day may yet happen in October. However, all the indicators that I follow and nearly thirty years of tape-reading tells me that we will have a rally in the early part of next week. FWIW
"Doc"
Carl
in Europe the big newspapers have all at least 4 pages about the crisis
headlines and 3 pages after that
so bottom is in
Al
Carl, I am agree with most of the comment here that the bottom is in, I also see several analysts on cnbc agree that people should be buying.
A trend is a trend is a trend.
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
through some unforeseen force
and come to a premature end?
Sir Alec Cairncross - First Director of the Economic Development Institute, 1954-1957
wow, everybody here agreeing bottom is in? worrisome.....
Well, a lot are saying (hoping) that the bottom is in and I think
there are several in disagreement
but I do think we can all agree upon one thing and that is...the top is in!
Hi Carl,
Now that most everyone is predicting a further market decline, I would like to toss my two cents into the ring.
I think we could just as easily see a panic buying spree, the market could be back to its old highs within a year. This is the time to buy, not to sell. Just take the heat until the actual bottom presents itself, because when the rally comes, it will come with such ferocity that those who sold out will not find a comfortable place to re-enter the market.
I also believe that most investors will not trust the coming rally, and that mistrust will only fuel the rally even further.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
as in all great bear markets, individual groups will bottom weeks and months before the indexes... across the board at fridays spike lows my energy traders and USO reached targets that had been in place for weeks and in some cases months....i am looking to trade long in this sector...peon
as i always do when i suspect an important swing low is at hand. i spent hours this weekend looking at the geometry of hundreds of stocks on daily and weekly charts to see what long term traders are thinking...what i see is remarkable.. diverse stocks such asTM,COP,AA,COST,MCD.. all hit important predefined targets on spike lows on friday...interestingly, one standout that needs one more push down is GS...because of the nature of the tools that give these lows, the amount of energy needed to push the market lower from here in any important way would require almost a cataclysmic event outside market to occur...this is not a long term bullish call... it is a trader's call that a tradeable swing low is at hand..peon
Carl,
Every thing i read out here is doom and gloom and that we are heading to 5k...
I have been reading ur blog and u are the only won who is optimistic the markets will rally back to 1500 or at least thought it was going back there... I really dont think this will be going back to 1500!
We may rally 1000pts., but will it last or just go back down and even lower from here?
I am a bit confused with all mixed prediction i hear and read everyday!
Any thoughts?
scott
Would a downside point and figure projection help identify a bottom price target now?
thanks for sharing the blog link. It was useful
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