Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Banking and Housing




Here are the latest covers of Business Week and Harpers.  Despite panic in the public arena, the bank spiders and the homebuilders spiders are each trading above their July lows. In fact, the homebuilder spiders are also trading above their March lows.  I think these are the first concrete signs that the crisis will soon ease and that the housing sector's troubles will be controlled. 

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl

For lords sake KBH a leading home builder is not trading above its highs.

Aren't you a little tired of calling the bottom since 13,000?

Anonymous said...

odds favour a snap back rally of some sort with the indicies so far away from their respective 200D EMA's..

gb, UK

Anonymous said...

Tough market to trade. I have been trading for 2 decades and have done well. The last few weeks have been very difficult. I have lost about 3% of my capital by trading only 10-20% of my capital. Imagine that. Better to trade small to fulfill gambling urge or stay in cash wait for better times.
ank

kleenup2 said...

Or are those charts showing you what the catalyst will be for the next leg lower? Home builders and the banking sector are still above their lows and their earnings estimates are still too high. The retail sector has also been holding up relatively well but haven't discounted just how much the US consumer is tightening his or her belt. The institutions and money managers are playing games with both Paulson and Bernanke by getting them to make concession after concession and they just sell into any rally that develops from their interventions. But don't fret all...soon the real opportunity of our lifetime will be upon us and we can short 30yr bonds with reckless abandon.

Anonymous said...

Forgot to mention, hey Carl ignore all the negative comments. They are all frustrated losers trying to take out their frustrations on you. I enjoy your blog. Good luck. And remember better times will come sooner or later. They key is to survive the tough times.
ank

Anonymous said...

please keep posting your es swing trades.

gltyai

rob