Friday, October 10, 2008

Global Chaos - All Signs Pointing To Panic

Here are images of the front pages of this morning's Chicago Tribune and The New York Times. I think the S&P futures will hit 860 today and then rally to 1060. 


Anonymous said...

You were very scathing about the wine man and other bears like myself. We were predicting 1070.
My goodness, we were out as well but at least we got the main trend right.
How did you miss this?
I am not being critical just asking why your analysis missed the biggest move of the last 20 years.

Anonymous said...

"I think the e-minis will hit 860 this morning and then will start a rally to 1060. "

Ι hope so, carl...

Carl Futia said...

My dear Catherine:

You accuse me of being "scathing". Please point me to the post or comment in which I used unkind words to describe you or your market views, or anyone else for that matter.

Perhaps you take disagreement between us about prospective market direction a bit too personally?

In any case, I recall that you made a blog comment when the e-minis were trading around 1130 on October 1 or so. You asked me not to publish it and I didn't. In this comment you cited your 1070 target and said that you thought the market was probably making its low, at least temporarily at that level.

So I ask you - how could you have missed the 26% drop of the past 10 days? You have been about 26/45=58% as "wrong" as I have been!

Of course, the fact is that I believe the market is about profit and loss, not about right or wrong.

Respectfully yours,

Tom said...

Carl, I guess I qualify as a 'lurker'. I'm certainly not any sort of technical trader but have been reading your blog with interest for some time.

Do you intend at some point soon, to show the trend of the current market and map it to the points you had predicted or which your analysis based on George Lindsay had predicted?

That would be interesting. I know some time ago (it may have been early this year or late last year) that you predicted the chances of a significant bear market though the timing may have been different.

Finally what do you think of the chances of an 'L-shaped' market - one that stays down for a significant period of time, versus a U or V shaped rally?

Thanks again. I will continue to go back to my corner and lurk some more.