Friday, June 24, 2011

Guesstimates on June 24, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1276-91. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 142.60. But a New York close above 142.60 would force me to abandon the 137.50 target and move back to the bullish camp.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.


rpccharts said...

looks light... can you project nite before for us europeans vs post 830 eco numbers?

AristotelCostel said...

How many times did I tell you Carl about updating the guesstimates of silver?

I admit that I hate... silver, not you, but you seem to love it.

And I am telling you another unimportant thing, I know nothing about European banking system... so, do not be aware. :D

Yeah... yeah... you do not need to thank me.

Carl Fredrik said...

1225 first then we'll see about the 1400.


Win said...


Some anecdotal stuff. I went out to buy a car this past weekend. All combined, I went to four dealerships (Toyota or Ford) and called or investigated a few others. Both Toyota and Ford dealers are very low on cars in their lots. Parts shipments from Japan have been severely disrupted by the earthquake and have not yet caught up. (Ford gets lots of chips from Japan.)

Many Toyota dealerships don't have any 2011 or 2012 Priuses, which is interesting because we are in the middle of 2011. They are taking orders with down payments, and the cars will be delivered in a month or so. I finally found one that had a Prius and there were a few people wanting to drive it. I'm guessing it's sold by now. Ford, too, didn't have very many cars on the lot. Summary: I think there will be a rebound in durable goods in the next quarter. In fact, I think the rebound has started.