Thursday, June 23, 2011

Guesstimates on June 23, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1262-77. I think the drop from the May 2 top at 1368 (Sept contract) ended on June 16 at 1252.25. My advancing issues oscillators are still oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is still very bearish. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level. Resistance above the market is at 142.60.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Next target is 87.00.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG has dropped below 495 support but it would have to spend several days below there before even lower prices become likely. I still think that the next big development will be a move to 700 and above.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.

3 comments:

straightshooter1000 said...

Carl,
It's probably time to take down the part about the swing to 1400. A lower high will be made somewhere in the 1300's..maybe.

AristotelCostel said...

Dear Carl, :D

I think you really forgot to update you analysis on silver.

Please, be more careful with your... prestige.

dave said...

There is a great story in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator which talks about Livermore being short into Wilsons peace offering December 20, 1916.

Once Wilson announced a Peace offering for Germany, the markets broke sharply and Livermore covered his shorts and by the end of the day was long. This looks like the same type of situation with the Obama peace plan.

Magazine indicator is excellent, but the contrarian opportunities of war and peace may be better. Libya war broke out exactly at the March 2011 lows.

"Buy to the roar of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets" still working today like it did in 1814.