Thursday, June 16, 2011

Guesstimates on June 16, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1265. My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The break during the past three days has been much bigger than I expected. I think this means that the Euro is headed down below its recent low to the 137.50 level.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 318.


Edwin said...

Yes. NYSE McCllelan Oscillator is showing positive divergence. It had served really well as an early warning of a reversal (rally).

paul said...

Do you think the market wants to see the US debt ceiling issue finalised before the rally to 1400 gets underway?

wdgTest said...

@Paul, You did not ask me but i think yes that we are waiting for the debt ceiling decicion, im sure it gets lifted if it does not then the market is doomed for a while and im leaning towards the fact that the elections are coming and all that it wont happen

Bill said...

The VIX is up more than 10% for a second day in a row. A bear market or an acceleration of this correction can not be ruled out. Picking a bottom is as difficult as picking a top. The sell off has been relentless, 7 weeks in a row down. This did not even happen in 2008. A bear market can very well be at the door.

Bill said...

With regard to the divergence in advancing oscillators, it doesn't mean a lot. We had the same divergence in December 2010, and in January and February 2011. Despite the divergence the market rallied, actually not only rallied, but it had one of its best rallies. Now the divergences are going the other way around, and they can go on for a couple of months longer while the market sells off.

Adsense said...

Hi carl
this next week the week of june 20th is an important time frame looking at low to low to high counts . there is a couple of them but i want to add this for todays ,market which will be important for tomorrow .
looking at cash spx daily chart
jan 28 2011 low plus 32 trading days was march 16 low plus 32 trading days was may 2 high plus 32 trading days was june 16th low
if this is to hold the next 32 trade day window would be august 1st 2011. weather a high or low i do not know all i know is this cycle has called important swings.
the cycle high i was looking for into june 15 17th obviously is a low which implies the next turn
surrounding july 1st .
my bias is we now have a bottom in place .
the market just has to prove itself . if this is a triangle formation of sorts then the spx index should poke above 1345.20
to complete the D wave before dropping back in point E this would also satisfy points 15 through 20 . this places us now at point 18 with points 19 and 20
added note : might point 20 end 32 trade days from now ? if thats the case early august would be a great place for point 20 . we will see soon enough .
good luck