Thursday, May 14, 2015

Guesstimates on May 14, 2015

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2102-2115. I think the ES is headed above 2120.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  Resistance above the market at 1.12 has been broken. The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
June Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Crude has reached 62 resistance and I think the market will stall here and then head lower.
June Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for 68. Resistance above the market is at 86.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.


AM said...

Carl, when you say resistance in gold 1215 and it has been broken, why do you still keep the original forecast? Whats the point of that number then?

Is there something else to this you are not mentioning?


Carl Futia said...

Support or resistance, especially on daily or weekly bar charts rarely works exactly.

I wait for the market to spend some time on the wrong side of such a level before deciding that it has been broken.

This is always a judgement call, like everything else in the speculative game.