Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Guesstimates on March 6, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1350-1362. The rally from the November 25 low has matched the size of the October 2011 rally and has also carried the market to its May 2011 top. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL has bounced off 545 resistance. Support is at 518. Next upside target is 575.


Nav said...

Still watching 1350-1355 in the S+P
500 as being important short term support. The biggest problem is the breakdown in the
Russell 2000 (RTY) below 812, the three week range low. The SOX has a similar break below

macabee said...

Today, IYT/TRANSPORTS violated the EW rule of wave 4 entering wave 1. Since you are counting on S&P moving into 1400 area this year, what wave count do you have for the S&P? I, of late, started reading your daily forecast. You are creditable...my best to you.

Carl Futia said...

Sorry, but I don't do Elliott!

Nav said...

Technically, 1350-55 was a big zone but (as
of 12pmET) we have broken down through there. Next up is 1337, 1333, and 1327. Note
that the S&P has broken down through the 20day MA today for the first time since Dec (the
50day is 1321).