Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Guesstimates on March 13, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1368-1378. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415 with normal interruptions along the way.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25. .

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is headed for its next upside target at 575. Support is at 520.


Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Just a thought that we can follow up on in time . i mentioned xom yesterday and it is for the most part beginning to show some confirmation that point 20 is in place ( obviously the market is right 1st so this can change ) im beginning to think though that we should consider the low in July 2010 as a beginning phase of a basic advance , in doing this i have to consider the rise from march 2009 to april 2010 as a subnormal advance , the decline from april 2010 to the july 2010 low is outside the parameters of a basic decline yet ill leave that for another day . a 3 peaks domed house pattern would have to begun from the july 1 low ( nya cash index ) pts 3 4 5 6 7 would have to be considered from feb 18 2011 to july 22 2011 ( only 5 months )
pts 8 9 10 into the oct 2011 lows
this then would label pts 11 12 13 14 the sideways action into dec 19 2011 . from here it gets tricky .
point 15 could have peaked feb 3 2012 ( i believe lindsay stated never count pt 15 to soon ) if so then we have pts 15 16 17 18 and now 19 forming an expanding triangle ( this labeling would call for a decline back to or just below the march 12th low ( $nya daily chart ) The problem with this count is obvious , point 15 is not above point 5 yet looking at the dow i can still make the same count from the july 2010 low so at a minimum i intend to start counting the basic time spans from that date . from what im looking at between xom nya and the dow i have to conclude its to soon to actually count pt 15 in place even though im looking for it .looking at my own adv decline data on the nyse ( nya ) we have made 3 main lows aug 8 2011 nov 25 2011 and march 6 2012 .( approx 3 months apart )i can break into 4 .
these periods aug 8 to aug 31
sept 22 to oct 27 and nov 25 to feb 3 .Aug 8 to Oct 27 = 80 cal days. nov 25 to feb 3 =70 cal days
shorter term durations .aug to aug 31 = 23 days sept 22 to oct 27 =35 days dec 14 ( higher low ) to feb 3=40 days . and march 6 2012 was a low .Bottom line , i want to be bearish yet simply cannot justify it , i have to remain in a bullish posture and allow for at least 23 to 80 days following the march 6 2012 time frame before i can consider it . next comes the Lindsay time spans from july 1 2010 as well as the time parameters of a Typical 3 peaks domed house pattern .
The market is indeed looking Bullish .
all for now

Win said...


On a weekly chart, there appears to be no resistance before SPX 1440 or so. I see where you're getting 1415, but I think this is Wave 5 of 3, and Wave 5s often extend.

Technically, we're in an air pocket now, and I think we'll get an explosion up with everyone who has been sitting in bonds piling in.