Thursday, March 29, 2012

target 1440

Here is a weekly bar chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to the 2007 bull market top. The next obvious upside target for the S&P in this bull market is not far away at 1440. The red dash line is at the level of the May 2008 top which was 1442 and thus a resistance level above the market. If the rally from the October 2011 low matches the size of the July 2010-May 2011 rally it would end at 1438 (blue dash rectangles).

But what happens after 1440? I don't see any sign yet that the technical condition of the rally is weakening. The bull market's leading stocks, right now technology, housing, and bank stocks, are still pulling the averages up. Foreign stock markets are for the most part in obvious up trends. There are no divergences among these various sectors that I can see. And until such divergences begin to appear I think the longer term trend will remain up.

This means that the S&P 500 is likely to reach the level of its 2007 bull market top of 1576 during the next 12 months or so.


Adsense said...

Hi Carl
To soon to call this but going to lay out a few thoughts.
dow big picture at pt 18 and very small picture from march 23rd low
on 60 minute chart might be considered a very small degree 3 peaks domed house pattern 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 would be today's low
would imply a choppy market for several hours then a move back upwards very tough call on small picture yet bigger picture point 18 appears valid,

mike said...

not sure what foreign markets you are looking at but china, spain and possibly germany look suspect.

BullandBearWise said...

Bradley called a top on March 16, so it will be interesting to see who's right.