Thursday, March 08, 2012

Guesstimates on March 8, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1357-1367. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.


Graph1159 said...

I agree with you that we're in some sort of significant reaction. The last two major reactions (November and December) were zigzags. Elliott Wave Theory suggests this one would be a flat or triangle instead. But it's hard to know what will happen in the short term these days

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I realize this is outside the box thinking . i have been following a very long term 3 peaks pattern that i have attempted to dove tail basic time cycle to . basically if i am correct the movement from 1966 to 1982 years in the dow 30 would be points 3 through 12 ,this helps to explain a longer duration that time period versus this time period
( more swings )this would imply the year 2000 as point 15 2002 as 16 2007 as 17 2009 as 18 and now being point 19 ??? it is possible from a very broad brush to pain 2011 as point 20 !!!! this tells me that either ( 1 ) point 19 is peaking or we have a long ways to move higher in a very long term point 21 ( assuming im correct of course and last year was point 20)
from a shorter term perspective we would need to define the sideways movement following the lows last year . also we ask was the may high in 2011 a short term point 5 ?? if so this would be pt 15 forming now which goes against my short term cycles for this year and assumes lindsays time spans
of the 12 yr 3 to 8 month durations is telling something different . ( sept 200 high ? )
if so maybe this point 15 would conclude pts 16 17 18 19 and 20 into the nov elections ?? a short pop into 2013 followed by a drop ?
seems doubtful at this juncture yet obviously not out of reality .
the best thought though that fits everything im looking at both short and long term still favors this as point 19 with a hard short term drop ( lasting several months ) and then a steady rise higher into the year 2017-2020 ( pin points 2018-2019 as a top )this would be followed with a point 22 low in years 2020-2023 ( wide range for now )then very long term point 23 ( not even going to guess a time at this juncture ).
the 13215 level in the dow is my level in the sand to help define
the longer term picture .
good luck