Monday, March 19, 2012

Guesstimates on March 19, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1388-1398. The rally from the March 6 low is getting close to resistance in the 1405-1415 range. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's upside run last week was extreme and I think AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.


Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I tend to agree with you thoughts today . I know better then to get to focused on a pattern yet i will say this one more time . The more i look into the potential 3 peaks domed house pattern from the july 2010 lows the more i feel it is valid .
i can fit lindsay time spans for bull markets into this i can see the pattern in several index's as well as a few stocks . it stands out like a sore thumb just about everywhere i look . Maybe im seeing what i want to see ?
I don't think so , The number one reason i say that is because i want to be bearish yet simply cannot justify it . short term though if we are seeing A pt 15 top , we should be looking for a sideways triangle formation and the initial decline within a triangle is typically the steepest .To put this one step further
with a bit of political speculation it implies that the powers that be are using what ever means needed to stay in power .
this also implies an august 2012 low weather that is point 18 or point 20 im not sure of .

Graph1159 said...

I think that we are in the fifth wave up from the November low. I expect that the next major top will occur near 1440 on the S&P (May 2008 top) and Dow 13750 (Dec. 2007 top). After that I expect either a 10% drop or a multimonth sideways period. There will probably be a significant case of "sell in May and go away" this year.