Friday, March 16, 2012

Guesstimates on March 16, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1394-1404. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. If so it is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's upside run during the past three days has been extreme and I think AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.


Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I mentioned the other day
the possibility of counting a new
advance beginning July 1 2010
Also I'm beginning to favor a 3 peaks
domed house beginning at that time
When correlating this together with
the Lindsay time spans there is a few considerations to be made .
#1 is this going to become an extended advance running into the Jan - March 2013 time frame ??
here is why .
a short advance can only run for 684 days max that would imply a top by may 15th 2012 .
right now there is a case to be made for a top next week yet based on the 3 peaks domed house pattern we are only at point 15 and this would imply at worst several weeks to months of sideways movement .
A Long advance of 765-831 days
would target a top from aug 4th to oct 9th . there is a bearish cycle that begins aug 6th and runs into feb 12th i believe next year ( feb anyway ) i have seen this cycle invert ( an aug low would imply a feb top )without going overboard here the basic is this . we should be near a point 15 high , cyclically this should be a top yet that does not mean a bearish cycle has to be a down market now does it ? if this is point 15 then a sideways movement is all we should expect .the 1300 area on spx would be the support area to look for yet im not even sure it will drop that far . the next consideration is the time parameters of a Typical 3 peaks domed house pattern also the fact that points 3 through 7 were a bit short at 7 months we may want to consider points 15 through 20 a bit long ? Lastly the 7 month 10 day count from point 10 on oct 3 2011 may be the peak of either point 15 ( i don't want to count pt 15 it to soon ) or point 17 , this would imply also the end of a short advance .
bottom line . Im expecting the overall picture to clear up in the coming weeks and based on pattern alone we have several subdivisions
to complete before the 3 peaks domed house pattern can be considered completed .

Nav said...

―The Economist‖ indicator, which was so helpful back in 2011 (11/26 – ―Is this
really the end of the euro?‖, flashed a warning sign Fri (the latest
cover wasn‘t full blown bullish but was on the positive side – ―Can it be….the recovery? Economic numbers will (eventually) need to start really
meaningfully surprising on the upside (the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell further
this week and hit the lowest levels since back in Nov) but this may not be a problem until ...