Friday, June 08, 2012

Guesstimates on June 8, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1309-25. The fast rally to yesterday's high at 1329 had all the earmarks of a lock-out rally following a shakeout below the 1287 low. This means that 1262 ended the correction from 1419.75 and that the  ES is headed for new bull market highs.
QQQ:  It now looks like the correction is over. A move to new bull market highs is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: The market has bounced off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

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