Monday, June 04, 2012

Guesstimates on June 4, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1270-1285. The market has dropped 25 points below the may 21 low at 1287.25, more than I would expect to see during a base building period. A  fast move back above 1287 is likely and if it occurs then the short term picture will be very bullish. Given the heavily bearish market sentiment I think that a big rally is imminent.  
QQQ:  Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50 is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  
SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.
Google: Google broke support at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market should resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 


dcatlowpj said...

With the Options market loading up on June 120 Puts, I am thinking we hit that price strike and then maybe bounce. In early May, the 130's were heavily traded (hedging and outright buying of puts)....I therefore am loading up on the cheaper strikes going into June and using July as my exp month.

Carl, any pullbacks to the 87 area, in my book, are an opportunity to sell short the ES.

john said...

Gold paused yesterday while consolidating Friday’s sharp advance. Still, the impulsive nature of the advance and the push above the
key 1623/1626 resistance zone and mid‐May breakdown area argues for additional upside now. With the 1575 area maintaining the
more immediate upside bias, sustained upside would target the 1636 violated uptrendline from the 2008 cycle low but likely suggest a
deeper retracement into the confluence of resistance in the 1670/1700 zone.